MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (55) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Net insider -$3.8M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 2 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $381 (last qtr, 10 analysts) → $392 (last mo, 7) (+2.9%).
Buy-rated share 58% → 54% over ~3 months (-4pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $3.52 | $3.70 | +5.1% |
| Apr 2026 | $2.27 | $2.35 | +3.5% |
| Jan 2026 | $2.16 | $2.23 | +3.2% |
| Oct 2025 | $3.45 | $3.59 | +4.1% |
| Jul 2025 | $3.76 | $3.38 | -10.1% |
| Apr 2025 | $2.15 | $2.25 | +4.7% |
| Jan 2025 | $2.06 | $2.09 | +1.5% |
| Oct 2024 | $3.54 | $3.37 | -4.8% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $19.9B— | $22.1B+11.1% | $23.1B+4.1% | $23.1B+0.2% | $23.6B+2.1% |
| EPS (dil.) | $6.98— | $7.72+10.6% | $9.25+19.8% | $10.55+14.1% | $10.27-2.7% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.9B— | $1.3B-31.9% | $2.6B+106.5% | $2.1B-20.9% | $2.7B+27.4% |
| Gross Margin | 42.8% | 42.1%-0.7pp | 46.7%+4.6pp | 48.5%+1.8pp | 48.9%+0.5pp |
| Operating Margin | 13.4% | 13.5%+0.2pp | 15.6%+2.1pp | 16.3%+0.6pp | 16.1%-0.1pp |
| Net Margin | 9.3% | 9.1%-0.2pp | 10.4%+1.2pp | 11.6%+1.2pp | 10.9%-0.7pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-12.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 4.9%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $2.5B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $2.7B) · equity value $86.9B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 55 for SHW suggests a neutral outlook, driven by strong profitability scores, with an ROE of 62.1%, but offset by lower value and growth scores, due to a P/E of 32.7 and negative EPS growth. The stock's momentum is moderate, with a recent 3-month return of 15.8%, but its 12-month return is -2.9%. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, indicating a consistent view of the stock's fundamentals.