MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (55) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Avg target $271 (last qtr, 8 analysts) → $284 (last mo, 5) (+5.0%).
Buy-rated share 62% → 64% over ~3 months (+2pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $2.31 | $2.35 | +1.7% |
| Apr 2026 | $2.14 | $2.40 | +12.1% |
| Jan 2026 | $2.41 | $2.32 | -3.7% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.82 | $2.73 | -3.2% |
| Jul 2025 | $2.44 | $2.48 | +1.6% |
| Apr 2025 | $2.21 | $2.31 | +4.5% |
| Jan 2025 | $2.53 | $2.47 | -2.4% |
| Oct 2024 | $2.50 | $2.65 | +6.0% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$9.2M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 4 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.7B— | $8.5B+9.7% | $7.8B-8.0% | $8.4B+7.4% | $9.0B+7.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $8.83— | $11.02+24.8% | $8.48-23.0% | $8.93+5.3% | $8.58-3.9% |
| Free Cash Flow | $489M— | $671M+37.2% | $845M+26.0% | $522M-38.3% | $729M+39.7% |
| Gross Margin | 24.2% | 24.7%+0.4pp | 21.8%-2.9pp | 21.3%-0.5pp | 21.0%-0.2pp |
| Operating Margin | 16.6% | 16.8%+0.2pp | 13.8%-3.0pp | 13.1%-0.6pp | 14.0%+0.8pp |
| Net Margin | 10.9% | 12.1%+1.3pp | 9.8%-2.3pp | 9.6%-0.2pp | 8.6%-1.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 5.5%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $699M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $729M) · equity value $22.9B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
PKG's QScore of 55 indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong momentum with a 12-month return of 28.7% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average. The stock's growth score is moderate, hindered by a decline in EPS growth, while its value score is also middling due to a P/E of 33.2. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with the short-term score slightly higher at 58, suggesting no significant divergence in the stock's near-term versus long-term prospects.