MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (51) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.3B— | $5.5B+29.3% | $6.9B+25.3% | $8.0B+16.5% | $9.2B+14.9% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-0.86— | $-0.45n/m | $0.64n/m | $3.64+468.8% | $1.60-56.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.4B— | $1.8B+29.2% | $2.6B+46.8% | $3.1B+17.8% | $3.5B+11.9% |
| Gross Margin | 70.0% | 68.8%-1.3pp | 72.3%+3.5pp | 74.3%+2.1pp | 73.4%-0.9pp |
| Operating Margin | -7.1% | -3.4%+3.7pp | 5.6%+9.1pp | 8.5%+2.9pp | 13.5%+5.0pp |
| Net Margin | -11.7% | -4.9%+6.9pp | 6.4%+11.2pp | 32.1%+25.7pp | 12.3%-19.8pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $334 (last qtr, 48 analysts) → $413 (last mo, 5) (+23.7%).
Buy-rated share 79% → 82% over ~3 months (+3pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $0.79 | $0.85 | +7.2% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.94 | $1.03 | +9.7% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.89 | $0.93 | +4.4% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.89 | $0.95 | +7.3% |
| May 2025 | $0.77 | $0.80 | +3.6% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.78 | $0.81 | +4.0% |
| Nov 2024 | $1.48 | $0.78 | -47.3% |
| Aug 2024 | $1.41 | $0.75 | -46.8% |
Net insider -$22.4M over 180 days (2 open-market buys, 43 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 16.6%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $3.1B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $3.5B) · equity value $321.4B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
PANW's QScore of 51 indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock's short-term score exceeding its long-term score by 13 points. The stock scores high on momentum, driven by a 126.3% return over the past year, but is held back by its value category, which is negatively impacted by a high P/E of 331.4. Profitability and risk factors also contribute to the overall score, with the stock exhibiting strong momentum but trading at a premium. The divergence between long-term and short-term scores suggests a potential mismatch between the stock's recent performance and its underlying fundamentals.