MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (43) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.7B— | $8.3B+23.5% | $8.3B-0.9% | $7.1B-14.2% | $6.0B-15.3% |
| EPS (dil.) | $2.27— | $4.25+87.2% | $4.89+15.1% | $3.63-25.8% | $0.29-92.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.3B— | $1.6B+23.8% | $438M-72.6% | $1.2B+176.6% | $1.4B+17.0% |
| Gross Margin | 40.3% | 49.0%+8.7pp | 47.1%-1.9pp | 45.4%-1.6pp | 33.1%-12.3pp |
| Operating Margin | 19.1% | 28.3%+9.2pp | 30.8%+2.4pp | 25.0%-5.8pp | 1.4%-23.6pp |
| Net Margin | 15.0% | 22.8%+7.9pp | 26.5%+3.6pp | 22.2%-4.3pp | 2.0%-20.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 13.3%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.0B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.4B) · equity value $27.9B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$1.2M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 1 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $85 avg across 11 analysts.
Buy-rated share 38% → 48% over ~3 months (+10pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $0.71 | $0.74 | +3.5% |
| May 2026 | $0.61 | $0.64 | +4.9% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.62 | $0.64 | +2.6% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.59 | $0.63 | +6.8% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.53 | $0.53 | -0.4% |
| May 2025 | $0.50 | $0.55 | +9.6% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.97 | $0.95 | -2.5% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.97 | $0.99 | +2.1% |
The QScore of 43 for ON Semiconductor Corporation suggests a neutral outlook, with the stock's value score being a relative bright spot, driven by its P/E of 45.4 and P/B of 3.9, albeit still indicating a premium valuation. However, the growth score is weighed down by significant declines in revenue and EPS growth, at -15.3% and -92.1%, respectively. The stock exhibits strong 12-month momentum with a return of 38.1%, but this is somewhat offset by a bearish short-term trend, with a 3-month return of -11.7% and a short-term score 3 points below the long-term score.