MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (55) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.9B— | $27.0B+0.2% | $60.9B+125.9% | $130.5B+114.2% | $215.9B+65.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $0.38— | $0.17-55.3% | $1.19+600.0% | $2.94+147.1% | $4.90+66.7% |
| Free Cash Flow | $8.1B— | $3.8B-53.2% | $27.0B+609.6% | $60.9B+125.2% | $96.7B+58.9% |
| Gross Margin | 64.9% | 56.9%-8.0pp | 72.7%+15.8pp | 75.0%+2.3pp | 71.1%-3.9pp |
| Operating Margin | 37.3% | 15.7%-21.6pp | 54.1%+38.5pp | 62.4%+8.3pp | 60.4%-2.0pp |
| Net Margin | 36.2% | 16.2%-20.0pp | 48.8%+32.7pp | 55.8%+7.0pp | 55.6%-0.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $332 (last qtr, 25 analysts) → $262 (last mo, 3) (-21.3%).
Buy-rated share 95% → 95% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $2.09 | $2.22 | +6.2% |
| May 2026 | $1.76 | $1.87 | +6.3% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.54 | $1.62 | +5.2% |
| Nov 2025 | $1.26 | $1.30 | +3.2% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.01 | $1.05 | +4.0% |
| May 2025 | $0.74 | $0.81 | +9.9% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.85 | $0.89 | +5.0% |
| Nov 2024 | $0.75 | $0.81 | +8.0% |
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 31.1%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $61.5B (avg FY2024–FY2026; latest year $96.7B) · equity value $4.86T · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net insider -$1.4B over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 32 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 55 for NVDA suggests a neutral outlook, driven by strong profitability and growth scores, which are offset by lower value and risk scores. NVDA scores high on profitability, with an ROE near 110%, and exhibits strong growth, with revenue and EPS growth exceeding 65%. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/E of 25.4, and exhibits moderate momentum, with a 12-month return of -1.2%. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 4-point difference.