MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (56) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Avg target $318 (last qtr, 26 analysts) → $0 (last mo, 0) (-100.0%).
Buy-rated share 95% → 95% over ~3 months (-0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $1.76 | $1.87 | +6.3% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.54 | $1.62 | +5.2% |
| Nov 2025 | $1.26 | $1.30 | +3.2% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.01 | $1.05 | +4.0% |
| May 2025 | $0.74 | $0.81 | +9.9% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.85 | $0.89 | +5.0% |
| Nov 2024 | $0.75 | $0.81 | +8.0% |
| Aug 2024 | $0.65 | $0.68 | +5.4% |
Net insider -$582.4M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 67 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.9B— | $27.0B+0.2% | $60.9B+125.9% | $130.5B+114.2% | $215.9B+65.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $0.38— | $0.17-55.3% | $1.19+600.0% | $2.94+147.1% | $4.90+66.7% |
| Free Cash Flow | $8.1B— | $3.8B-53.2% | $27.0B+609.6% | $60.9B+125.2% | $96.7B+58.9% |
| Gross Margin | 64.9% | 56.9%-8.0pp | 72.7%+15.8pp | 75.0%+2.3pp | 71.1%-3.9pp |
| Operating Margin | 37.3% | 15.7%-21.6pp | 54.1%+38.5pp | 62.4%+8.3pp | 60.4%-2.0pp |
| Net Margin | 36.2% | 16.2%-20.0pp | 48.8%+32.7pp | 55.8%+7.0pp | 55.6%-0.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
The QScore of 56 for NVDA indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong profitability and growth scores, which are offset by lower value and risk scores. NVDA scores high on profitability, with an ROE near 112%, and exhibits strong growth, with revenue and EPS growth exceeding 65%. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/E of 29.3, and exhibits higher volatility, with a beta of 2.2. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 4-point difference.