MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (56) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.9B— | $27.0B+0.2% | $60.9B+125.9% | $130.5B+114.2% | $215.9B+65.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $0.38— | $0.17-55.3% | $1.19+600.0% | $2.94+147.1% | $4.90+66.7% |
| Free Cash Flow | $8.1B— | $3.8B-53.2% | $27.0B+609.6% | $60.9B+125.2% | $96.7B+58.9% |
| Gross Margin | 64.9% | 56.9%-8.0pp | 72.7%+15.8pp | 75.0%+2.3pp | 71.1%-3.9pp |
| Operating Margin | 37.3% | 15.7%-21.6pp | 54.1%+38.5pp | 62.4%+8.3pp | 60.4%-2.0pp |
| Net Margin | 36.2% | 16.2%-20.0pp | 48.8%+32.7pp | 55.8%+7.0pp | 55.6%-0.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $320 avg across 25 analysts.
Buy-rated share 94% → 95% over ~3 months (+1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $1.76 | $1.87 | +6.3% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.54 | $1.62 | +5.2% |
| Nov 2025 | $1.26 | $1.30 | +3.2% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.01 | $1.05 | +4.0% |
| May 2025 | $0.74 | $0.81 | +9.9% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.85 | $0.89 | +5.0% |
| Nov 2024 | $0.75 | $0.81 | +8.0% |
| Aug 2024 | $0.65 | $0.68 | +5.4% |
Net insider -$574.3M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 45 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 26.4%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $61.5B (avg FY2024–FY2026; latest year $96.7B) · equity value $5.43T · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
The QScore of 56 for NVDA indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong growth and profitability scores, which are offset by lower value and risk scores. The stock scores high on growth, with revenue and EPS growth near 65-66%, and exhibits strong profitability, with an ROE near 112%. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/E of 34.2x, and has a relatively high beta of 2.2, contributing to its lower value and risk scores. The long-term and short-term scores are closely aligned, suggesting a consistent outlook.