MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (52) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $46.7B— | $51.2B+9.6% | $51.4B+0.3% | $46.3B-9.8% | $46.4B+0.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $3.75— | $3.23-13.9% | $3.73+15.5% | $2.16-42.1% | $2.10-2.8% |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.4B— | $4.9B+10.0% | $6.6B+35.8% | $3.3B-50.6% | $2.2B-33.2% |
| Gross Margin | 46.0% | 43.5%-2.5pp | 44.6%+1.0pp | 42.7%-1.8pp | 42.9%+0.2pp |
| Operating Margin | 14.3% | 11.5%-2.7pp | 12.3%+0.7pp | 8.0%-4.3pp | 8.2%+0.2pp |
| Net Margin | 12.9% | 9.9%-3.0pp | 11.1%+1.2pp | 7.0%-4.1pp | 6.7%-0.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$1.6M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 9 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $37 (last qtr, 35 analysts) → $35 (last mo, 21) (-6.7%).
Buy-rated share 31% → 24% over ~3 months (-7pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $0.43 | $0.48 | +10.8% |
| Jun 2026 | $0.11 | $0.72 | +554.5% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.29 | $0.35 | +20.4% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.37 | $0.53 | +41.4% |
| Sep 2025 | $0.27 | $0.49 | +80.1% |
| Jun 2025 | $0.13 | $0.14 | +7.4% |
| Mar 2025 | $0.30 | $0.54 | +79.6% |
| Dec 2024 | $0.65 | $0.78 | +20.0% |
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 2.0%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $4.0B (avg FY2024–FY2026; latest year $2.2B) · equity value $57.5B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 52 indicates a neutral outlook for NKE, with no significant divergence between long-term and short-term scores. NKE scores high on risk factors, driven by its relatively low volatility and beta, but is dragged down by weak growth metrics, including negative EPS growth and a decline in free cash flow. The stock trades at a moderate valuation, with a P/E of 18.5, and exhibits strong profitability, with an ROE near 21%, but its momentum is bearish, with a 12-month return of -40.6%.