MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (49) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Buy-rated share 50% → 55% over ~3 months (+5pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $8.37 | $9.59 | +14.6% |
| Aug 2026 | $9.95 | $11.27 | +13.3% |
| Apr 2026 | $5.37 | $7.28 | +35.6% |
| Feb 2026 | $6.67 | $7.53 | +12.9% |
| Oct 2025 | $6.60 | $7.25 | +9.8% |
| Jul 2025 | $6.82 | $7.36 | +7.9% |
| May 2025 | $3.96 | $2.63 | -33.6% |
| Feb 2025 | $6.46 | $6.96 | +7.7% |
Net insider -$28.0M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 8 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.4B— | $23.4B+35.1% | $21.5B-8.2% | $20.2B-6.0% | $19.4B-4.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $14.92— | $28.10+88.3% | $25.49-9.3% | $24.11-5.4% | $24.10-0.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | $463M— | $689M+49.0% | $448M-35.0% | $390M-13.1% | $374M-3.9% |
| Gross Margin | 10.7% | 10.2%-0.4pp | 10.7%+0.5pp | 11.4%+0.6pp | 5.0%-6.4pp |
| Operating Margin | 3.5% | 4.1%+0.7pp | 3.8%-0.3pp | 3.7%-0.2pp | 3.8%+0.1pp |
| Net Margin | 2.3% | 2.9%+0.6pp | 2.6%-0.3pp | 2.5%-0.1pp | 2.4%-0.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of -1.3%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $404M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $374M) · equity value $9.8B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 49 for Murphy USA Inc indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock's value and momentum scores driving it up, while growth and risk factors pull it down. The stock trades at a reasonable valuation, with a P/E of 14.8, and exhibits strong momentum, having returned 36.3% over the past year. However, its growth prospects are muted, with negative revenue and EPS growth, and its risk profile is moderate, with a beta of 0.3 and notable volatility. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, suggesting a consistent view of the stock's prospects.