MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (55) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $537 (last qtr, 17 analysts) → $400 (last mo, 1) (-25.5%).
Buy-rated share 95% → 95% over ~3 months (-0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $4.06 | $4.27 | +5.2% |
| Jan 2026 | $3.90 | $4.14 | +6.2% |
| Oct 2025 | $3.67 | $4.13 | +12.5% |
| Jul 2025 | $3.37 | $3.65 | +8.3% |
| Apr 2025 | $3.22 | $3.46 | +7.5% |
| Jan 2025 | $3.15 | $3.23 | +2.5% |
| Oct 2024 | $3.10 | $3.30 | +6.5% |
| Jul 2024 | $2.93 | $2.95 | +0.7% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $168.1B— | $198.3B+18.0% | $211.9B+6.9% | $245.1B+15.7% | $281.7B+14.9% |
| EPS (dil.) | $8.05— | $9.65+19.9% | $9.68+0.3% | $11.80+21.9% | $13.64+15.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $56.1B— | $65.1B+16.1% | $59.5B-8.7% | $74.1B+24.5% | $71.6B-3.3% |
| Gross Margin | 68.9% | 68.4%-0.5pp | 68.9%+0.5pp | 69.8%+0.8pp | 68.8%-0.9pp |
| Operating Margin | 41.6% | 42.1%+0.5pp | 41.8%-0.3pp | 44.6%+2.9pp | 45.6%+1.0pp |
| Net Margin | 36.5% | 36.7%+0.2pp | 34.1%-2.5pp | 36.0%+1.8pp | 36.1%+0.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$13.6M over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 5 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 55 for MSFT suggests a neutral outlook, driven by strong profitability scores, with an ROE of 33.1% and operating margin of 46.8%, but offset by lower growth and momentum scores, due to a 24.2% decline in stock price over the past year and negative free cash flow growth. The stock trades at a P/E of 22.1, which is relatively in line with its peers. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively close, with only a 4-point difference, indicating a consistent outlook. MSFT's risk score is high, driven by a beta of 1.1 and significant 60-day volatility of 35.4%.