MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (57) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $198.3B— | $211.9B+6.9% | $245.1B+15.7% | $281.7B+14.9% | $331.8B+17.8% |
| EPS (dil.) | $9.65— | $9.68+0.3% | $11.80+21.9% | $13.64+15.6% | $17.95+31.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $65.1B— | $59.5B-8.7% | $74.1B+24.5% | $71.6B-3.3% | $67.0B-6.5% |
| Gross Margin | 68.4% | 68.9%+0.5pp | 69.8%+0.8pp | 68.8%-0.9pp | 67.9%-0.9pp |
| Operating Margin | 42.1% | 41.8%-0.3pp | 44.6%+2.9pp | 45.6%+1.0pp | 46.8%+1.2pp |
| Net Margin | 36.7% | 34.1%-2.5pp | 36.0%+1.8pp | 36.1%+0.2pp | 40.3%+4.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $546 (last qtr, 20 analysts) → $560 (last mo, 16) (+2.7%).
Buy-rated share 95% → 95% over ~3 months (-0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $4.24 | $4.74 | +11.8% |
| Apr 2026 | $4.06 | $4.27 | +5.2% |
| Jan 2026 | $3.90 | $4.14 | +6.2% |
| Oct 2025 | $3.67 | $4.13 | +12.5% |
| Jul 2025 | $3.37 | $3.65 | +8.3% |
| Apr 2025 | $3.22 | $3.46 | +7.5% |
| Jan 2025 | $3.15 | $3.23 | +2.5% |
| Oct 2024 | $3.10 | $3.30 | +6.5% |
Net insider -$20.8M over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 7 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 22.2%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $70.9B (avg FY2024–FY2026; latest year $67.0B) · equity value $3.66T · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 57 for MSFT indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong profitability scores, with an ROE of 33.2% and operating margin of 46.8%, but offset by lower growth and momentum scores, due to negative free cash flow growth and a recent 12-month return of -5.6%. The stock trades at a premium, with a P/E of 27.4, contributing to a moderate value score. Notably, the risk score is relatively high, with a beta of 1.1 and 60-day volatility of 45.6%, but the long-term and short-term scores are closely aligned, suggesting a consistent outlook.