HIGH confidence: 100% data completeness across all factors and the composite score (29) is in decisive short territory. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $74 avg across 3 analysts.
Buy-rated share 100% → 100% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $-0.01 | $-0.01 | +0.6% |
| May 2026 | $-0.03 | $0.03 | +206.5% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.06 | $0.09 | +53.9% |
| Nov 2025 | $-0.17 | $-0.10 | +42.2% |
| Aug 2025 | $-0.20 | $-0.13 | +34.0% |
| May 2025 | $-0.10 | $-0.12 | -20.0% |
| Feb 2025 | $-0.09 | $-0.12 | -33.3% |
| Nov 2024 | $-0.13 | $-0.12 | +7.7% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $332M— | $528M+58.9% | $253M-52.0% | $204M-19.6% | $224M+10.1% |
| EPS (dil.) | $0.73— | $1.52+108.2% | $0.14-90.8% | $-0.57-507.1% | $-0.50n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | -$22M— | $17Mn/m | -$199M-1277.4% | -$173Mn/m | -$328Mn/m |
| Gross Margin | 69.7% | 79.0%+9.4pp | 41.4%-37.6pp | -32.8%-74.2pp | -25.7%+7.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 49.8% | 62.1%+12.3pp | -7.0%-69.1pp | -83.1%-76.1pp | -64.6%+18.5pp |
| Net Margin | 40.7% | 54.8%+14.1pp | 9.6%-45.2pp | -32.1%-41.7pp | -38.3%-6.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$82.0M over 180 days (2 open-market buys, 22 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 29 for MP Materials Corp indicates a relatively weak investment profile, driven down by low scores in Value and Profitability, with the stock trading at a significant premium as evidenced by its P/E of -159.8 and EV/EBITDA of 165.6, as well as poor profitability metrics such as an ROE of -2.7% and operating margin of -33.1%. The Growth category scores relatively high at 48, but this is offset by the stock's weak momentum, with a 12-month return of -27.2% and a bearish 50-day versus 200-day moving average trend. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively close, with the short-term score being only 8 points higher.