MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (49) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net insider -$310K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 1 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $103 avg across 3 analysts.
Buy-rated share 76% → 77% over ~3 months (+1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $0.70 | $0.76 | +8.6% |
| May 2026 | $0.51 | $0.57 | +12.9% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.43 | $0.44 | +2.7% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.33 | $0.35 | +5.9% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.24 | $0.27 | +13.0% |
| May 2025 | $0.10 | $0.11 | +5.1% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.28 | $0.20 | -27.9% |
| Nov 2024 | $0.43 | $0.46 | +5.9% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.8B— | $8.4B+23.7% | $7.6B-9.5% | $4.4B-42.3% | $4.7B+7.1% |
| EPS (dil.) | $2.27— | $4.02+77.1% | $3.48-13.4% | $-0.01-100.1% | $0.26n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.5B— | $3.1B+26.8% | $2.6B-16.8% | $772M-70.4% | $871M+12.8% |
| Gross Margin | 65.2% | 67.5%+2.3pp | 65.4%-2.1pp | 56.1%-9.4pp | 57.7%+1.7pp |
| Operating Margin | 27.1% | 36.9%+9.8pp | 33.7%-3.2pp | 6.7%-26.9pp | 10.4%+3.7pp |
| Net Margin | 18.8% | 26.5%+7.7pp | 25.0%-1.5pp | -0.0%-25.0pp | 4.3%+4.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 17.0%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.4B (avg FY2024–FY2026; latest year $871M) · equity value $41.0B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 49 for Microchip Technology Incorporated suggests a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of factors. The stock scores high on growth, with notable EPS growth of 5500% and revenue growth of 7.1%, but is held back by its value score, as it trades at a premium with a P/E of 104.7. Momentum is also a concern, with a bearish 50-day versus 200-day moving average and a relatively low 3-month return of 0.8%. The long-term and short-term scores are closely aligned, indicating a consistent view of the stock's prospects.