MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (41) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $1104 avg across 10 analysts.
Buy-rated share 81% → 82% over ~3 months (+1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $2.97 | $3.23 | +8.8% |
| May 2026 | $2.27 | $2.37 | +4.4% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.41 | $1.67 | +18.4% |
| Nov 2025 | $1.03 | $1.10 | +6.8% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.81 | $0.88 | +8.1% |
| May 2025 | $0.50 | $0.57 | +14.0% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.34 | $0.42 | +23.5% |
| Nov 2024 | $0.12 | $0.18 | +50.0% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.7B— | $1.8B+3.2% | $1.4B-23.1% | $1.6B+21.0% | $3.0B+83.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $2.68— | $-1.93-172.0% | $-8.12n/m | $0.37n/m | $-92.96-25224.3% |
| Free Cash Flow | $368M— | $51M-86.1% | -$111M-317.0% | -$105Mn/m | $300Mn/m |
| Gross Margin | 46.0% | 32.2%-13.8pp | 18.5%-13.7pp | 28.0%+9.5pp | 41.7%+13.7pp |
| Operating Margin | 17.6% | -5.0%-22.6pp | -26.6%-21.6pp | -11.7%+14.9pp | 17.4%+29.1pp |
| Net Margin | 11.6% | -7.4%-19.1pp | -40.2%-32.8pp | 1.6%+41.8pp | -230.1%-231.7pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 62.0%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $28M (avg FY2024–FY2026; latest year $300M) · equity value $74.3B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net insider -$90.5M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 69 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 41 for Lumentum Holdings indicates a neutral outlook, with the short-term score of 47 diverging from the long-term score of 34. The stock scores high on growth and momentum, driven by its 83.2% revenue growth and 283.2% 12-month return. However, it trades at a premium and exhibits weak profitability, with a negative ROE and low FCF yield, which pulls the overall score down. The value category also scores low due to negative P/E and EV/EBITDA metrics.