MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (40) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-26.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $19.4B— | $21.2B+9.3% | $18.9B-10.6% | $18.6B-1.6% | $24.9B+33.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $4.47— | $4.10-8.3% | $0.87-78.8% | $1.57+80.5% | $-6.71-527.4% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.5B— | $1.2B-16.1% | $692M-44.3% | $757M+9.4% | -$159M-121.0% |
| Gross Margin | 28.6% | 28.4%-0.1pp | 20.4%-8.1pp | 28.2%+7.8pp | 29.5%+1.4pp |
| Operating Margin | 7.6% | 8.3%+0.7pp | 6.3%-2.0pp | 2.6%-3.7pp | -11.3%-13.9pp |
| Net Margin | 9.0% | 7.1%-1.9pp | 1.6%-5.5pp | 3.0%+1.4pp | -14.1%-17.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 2.4%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $430M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year -$159M) · equity value $19.3B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net insider -$1.2M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 2 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $46 avg across 8 analysts.
Buy-rated share 60% → 83% over ~3 months (+23pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $0.29 | $0.37 | +29.5% |
| Jul 2026 | $-0.03 | $0.04 | +233.7% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.15 | $0.15 | +2.3% |
| Jan 2026 | $0.28 | $-0.08 | -128.6% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.47 | $-0.43 | -191.8% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.39 | $0.20 | -48.5% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.38 | $0.23 | -39.1% |
| Jan 2025 | $0.03 | $-0.02 | -166.7% |
The QScore of 40 for International Paper Company suggests a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of factors. The stock scores relatively high on Risk, with a beta near 1, but is dragged down by poor Profitability, including a negative ROE of -24.2% and operating margin of -14.3%. The Value category also scores low, with a P/B ratio of 1.5, while Momentum is mediocre, exhibiting a 12-month return of -18.5% and a bearish 50-day versus 200-day moving average trend. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively close, with the short-term score 5 points higher at 43.