MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (58) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.5B— | $11.2B+71.1% | $6.6B-40.7% | $5.9B-10.5% | $7.1B+19.3% |
| EPS (dil.) | $4.24— | $16.39+286.4% | $7.87-52.0% | $6.74-14.4% | $8.97+33.1% |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.3B— | $3.4B+45.1% | $2.3B-33.8% | $1.8B-22.3% | $1.8B+2.8% |
| Gross Margin | 36.1% | 52.7%+16.6pp | 39.9%-12.8pp | 34.6%-5.3pp | 38.5%+3.8pp |
| Operating Margin | 32.7% | 50.1%+17.4pp | 35.5%-14.6pp | 29.4%-6.1pp | 33.4%+4.0pp |
| Net Margin | 14.0% | 29.9%+15.9pp | 23.0%-6.9pp | 20.5%-2.5pp | 20.5%+0.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
No recent open-market insider transactions.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $130 avg across 7 analysts.
Buy-rated share 27% → 27% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $5.63 | $4.73 | -16.0% |
| May 2026 | $2.63 | $3.99 | +51.7% |
| Feb 2026 | $2.43 | $2.99 | +23.0% |
| Nov 2025 | $2.16 | $2.19 | +1.4% |
| Aug 2025 | $2.50 | $2.37 | -5.2% |
| May 2025 | $1.48 | $1.85 | +25.0% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.54 | $1.89 | +22.7% |
| Oct 2024 | $1.18 | $1.34 | +13.6% |
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of -4.1%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.9B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.8B) · equity value $18.7B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 58 for CF Industries indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong momentum and profitability scores of 70 and 69, respectively, with the company exhibiting strong momentum and a high ROE of 40.4%. However, the growth score of 52 and risk score of 42 temper this outlook, as revenue growth, while positive at 19.3%, is not as robust as EPS growth, and the stock trades at a relatively low valuation with a P/E of 9.1. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 3-point difference.