MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (55) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.7B— | $14.2B+11.4% | $15.3B+8.0% | $15.7B+2.7% | $16.1B+2.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $3.91— | $3.81-2.6% | $4.79+25.7% | $7.37+53.9% | $7.28-1.2% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.4B— | $1.1B-24.2% | $1.6B+52.2% | $1.8B+11.1% | $1.9B+4.7% |
| Gross Margin | 41.0% | 38.2%-2.8pp | 40.3%+2.1pp | 43.5%+3.2pp | 44.5%+1.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 13.2% | 11.3%-1.9pp | 14.1%+2.8pp | 16.6%+2.5pp | 18.1%+1.5pp |
| Net Margin | 8.9% | 7.7%-1.2pp | 9.0%+1.3pp | 13.4%+4.5pp | 12.9%-0.5pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Buy-rated share 71% → 84% over ~3 months (+13pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $2.18 | $2.18 | +0.0% |
| Jul 2026 | $2.08 | $2.09 | +0.5% |
| Apr 2026 | $1.70 | $1.70 | +0.0% |
| Feb 2026 | $2.07 | $2.08 | +0.5% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.07 | $2.07 | +0.0% |
| Jul 2025 | $1.90 | $1.89 | -0.5% |
| Apr 2025 | $1.50 | $1.50 | +0.0% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.81 | $1.81 | +0.0% |
Net insider -$6.6M over 180 days (5 open-market buys, 5 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 6.9%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.8B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.9B) · equity value $84.9B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 55 for Ecolab indicates a moderately favorable outlook, driven by strong momentum and low risk, with scores of 65 and 74, respectively. The stock's high valuation, with a P/E of 40.9, weighs on its value score, which comes in at 33. A divergence between the long-term score of 49 and short-term score of 60 suggests that recent performance, including a 17.7% return over the past year, is outpacing its longer-term prospects. Ecolab exhibits strong momentum, but trades at a premium.