MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (50) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $27.9B— | $28.1B+0.9% | $29.1B+3.6% | $30.1B+3.3% | $34.3B+14.1% |
| EPS (dil.) | $2.58— | $0.66-74.4% | $1.54+133.3% | $1.93+25.3% | $-0.04-102.3% |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.4B— | $1.5B-56.3% | $1.6B+8.8% | $2.0B+23.4% | $627M-68.2% |
| Gross Margin | 32.7% | 31.4%-1.3pp | 34.1%+2.7pp | 31.8%-2.3pp | 28.8%-3.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 7.9% | 6.5%-1.3pp | 8.3%+1.8pp | 8.1%-0.2pp | 4.8%-3.3pp |
| Net Margin | 12.3% | 3.1%-9.2pp | 7.0%+3.9pp | 8.6%+1.6pp | 0.2%-8.4pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 17.4%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.4B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $627M) · equity value $71.4B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Avg target $69 (last qtr, 21 analysts) → $72 (last mo, 9) (+3.6%).
Buy-rated share 57% → 60% over ~3 months (+3pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | $0.93 | $1.11 | +19.1% |
| Jun 2026 | $0.54 | $0.79 | +47.7% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.59 | $0.65 | +10.7% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.58 | $0.62 | +7.1% |
| Sep 2025 | $0.42 | $0.44 | +5.5% |
| Jun 2025 | $0.35 | $0.38 | +9.7% |
| Mar 2025 | $0.50 | $0.49 | -1.4% |
| Dec 2024 | $0.55 | $0.58 | +5.5% |
Net insider -$43.4M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 13 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
The QScore of 50 for HPE indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock's value and momentum scores driving it up, while growth and profitability scores pull it down. HPE scores high on momentum, exhibiting strong price appreciation of 127% over the past year, and trades at a premium with a P/E of 26.8. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with the short-term score slightly higher at 52, suggesting no significant divergence in outlook. The stock's growth score is weighed down by negative EPS and FCF growth.