MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (54) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $64 avg across 19 analysts.
Buy-rated share 44% → 59% over ~3 months (+15pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $0.54 | $0.79 | +47.7% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.59 | $0.65 | +10.7% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.58 | $0.62 | +7.1% |
| Sep 2025 | $0.42 | $0.44 | +5.5% |
| Jun 2025 | $0.35 | $0.38 | +9.7% |
| Mar 2025 | $0.50 | $0.49 | -1.4% |
| Dec 2024 | $0.55 | $0.58 | +5.5% |
| Sep 2024 | $0.47 | $0.50 | +6.4% |
Net insider -$16.5M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 11 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $27.9B— | $28.1B+0.9% | $29.1B+3.6% | $30.1B+3.3% | $34.3B+14.1% |
| EPS (dil.) | $2.58— | $0.66-74.4% | $1.54+133.3% | $1.93+25.3% | $-0.04-102.3% |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.4B— | $1.5B-56.3% | $1.6B+8.8% | $2.0B+23.4% | $627M-68.2% |
| Gross Margin | 32.7% | 31.4%-1.3pp | 34.1%+2.7pp | 31.8%-2.3pp | 28.8%-3.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 7.9% | 6.5%-1.3pp | 8.3%+1.8pp | 8.1%-0.2pp | 4.8%-3.3pp |
| Net Margin | 12.3% | 3.1%-9.2pp | 7.0%+3.9pp | 8.6%+1.6pp | 0.2%-8.4pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 14.6%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.4B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $627M) · equity value $81.7B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 54 for HPE indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock's short-term score of 59 exceeding its long-term score of 49 by 10 points. HPE scores high on momentum, driven by its +189% return over the past year and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average. However, the stock trades at a premium, with a P/E of 56.6, and exhibits weak growth, particularly in EPS and free cash flow, which are down 102% and 68%, respectively. The company's profitability also remains a concern, with an ROE near 6%.