MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (54) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $373 (last qtr, 10 analysts) → $384 (last mo, 7) (+2.9%).
Buy-rated share 54% → 63% over ~3 months (+9pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $2.37 | $2.45 | +3.4% |
| Jul 2026 | $2.27 | $2.29 | +0.9% |
| Apr 2026 | $1.98 | $2.01 | +1.5% |
| Feb 2026 | $2.02 | $2.08 | +3.0% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.06 | $2.11 | +2.4% |
| Jul 2025 | $2.05 | $2.20 | +7.3% |
| Apr 2025 | $1.61 | $1.72 | +6.8% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.67 | $1.76 | +5.4% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.8B— | $8.8B+51.6% | $10.2B+16.7% | $11.2B+9.2% | $12.0B+7.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $1.46— | $4.53+210.3% | $4.32-4.6% | $6.14+42.1% | $6.12-0.3% |
| Free Cash Flow | $30M— | $1.6B+5163.3% | $1.7B+7.6% | $1.8B+6.8% | $1.9B+7.1% |
| Gross Margin | 28.6% | 30.8%+2.2pp | 28.6%-2.1pp | 27.4%-1.2pp | 41.1%+13.7pp |
| Operating Margin | 17.4% | 23.9%+6.4pp | 21.7%-2.1pp | 21.2%-0.5pp | 22.4%+1.2pp |
| Net Margin | 7.1% | 14.3%+7.2pp | 11.1%-3.2pp | 13.7%+2.6pp | 12.1%-1.6pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 7.5%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.8B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.9B) · equity value $79.6B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net insider -$2.4M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 3 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 54 for Hilton Worldwide Holdings indicates a neutral outlook, with the short-term score of 61 diverging significantly from the long-term score of 46. The stock scores high on momentum, driven by a 37.1% return over the past year and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average trend. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/E of 47.8, which weighs down its value score, while its profitability is moderate, with an ROE near -28.1% but an operating margin of 24.0%.