MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (54) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $151.2B— | $157.4B+4.1% | $152.7B-3.0% | $159.5B+4.5% | $164.7B+3.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $15.53— | $16.69+7.5% | $15.11-9.5% | $14.91-1.3% | $14.23-4.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $14.0B— | $11.5B-17.9% | $17.9B+56.1% | $16.3B-9.0% | $12.6B-22.5% |
| Gross Margin | 33.6% | 33.5%-0.1pp | 33.4%-0.2pp | 33.4%+0.0pp | 33.3%-0.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 15.2% | 15.3%+0.0pp | 14.2%-1.1pp | 13.5%-0.7pp | 12.7%-0.8pp |
| Net Margin | 10.9% | 10.9%-0.0pp | 9.9%-0.9pp | 9.3%-0.6pp | 8.6%-0.7pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 3.3%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $15.6B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $12.6B) · equity value $328.5B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net insider -$3.3M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 4 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $366 avg across 11 analysts.
Buy-rated share 58% → 59% over ~3 months (+1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $4.73 | $4.92 | +4.0% |
| May 2026 | $3.41 | $3.43 | +0.6% |
| Feb 2026 | $2.53 | $2.72 | +7.5% |
| Nov 2025 | $3.83 | $3.74 | -2.3% |
| Aug 2025 | $4.72 | $4.68 | -0.8% |
| May 2025 | $3.60 | $3.56 | -1.1% |
| Feb 2025 | $3.04 | $3.13 | +3.0% |
| Nov 2024 | $3.64 | $3.67 | +0.8% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
The QScore of 54 indicates a neutral outlook for HD, driven by a strong profitability profile, with a notable ROE of 102.7%, and a relatively low risk score of 75, reflecting its stable beta and moderate volatility. However, the stock's value and growth scores are weighed down by its premium valuation, including a P/E of 23.0, and sluggish revenue and earnings growth. The momentum score is also subdued, with a 12-month return of -12.9%, although the short-term score is only slightly higher than the long-term score, suggesting a consistent view across time horizons.