MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (43) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Avg target $35 (last qtr, 9 analysts) → $35 (last mo, 3) (-0.9%).
Buy-rated share 42% → 39% over ~3 months (-3pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $1.25 | $1.44 | +15.2% |
| Apr 2026 | $-0.29 | $-0.14 | +51.9% |
| Jan 2026 | $-0.46 | $-0.34 | +26.7% |
| Oct 2025 | $-0.31 | $-0.19 | +38.4% |
| Jul 2025 | $-0.17 | $-0.42 | -142.1% |
| Apr 2025 | $-0.01 | $0.02 | +240.4% |
| Jan 2025 | $0.35 | $-0.08 | -121.5% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.46 | $0.47 | +2.8% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $55.0B— | $56.9B+3.5% | $44.6B-21.6% | $43.0B-3.7% | $40.0B-7.0% |
| EPS (dil.) | $8.38— | $6.28-25.1% | $0.82-86.9% | $1.57+91.5% | $-3.69-335.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.5B— | $5.4B-1.7% | $2.7B-49.8% | -$151M-105.6% | -$1.4Bn/m |
| Gross Margin | 18.9% | 13.8%-5.1pp | 11.1%-2.7pp | 10.4%-0.8pp | 6.0%-4.4pp |
| Operating Margin | 14.3% | 9.4%-5.0pp | 5.6%-3.7pp | 4.8%-0.8pp | 0.7%-4.2pp |
| Net Margin | 11.5% | 8.1%-3.4pp | 1.3%-6.7pp | 2.6%+1.3pp | -6.6%-9.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
No recent open-market insider transactions.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 0.8%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $374M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year -$1.4B) · equity value $21.9B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 43 for Dow Inc. suggests a neutral outlook, with the stock's value score being a relative bright spot, driven by its low P/E and P/B ratios. However, this is offset by weak growth and profitability scores, reflecting the company's significant declines in EPS and free cash flow growth. The stock exhibits strong long-term momentum, with a 12-month return of nearly 40%, but this has been partially unwound by a recent 3-month decline of 22%.