MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (42) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net insider -$25.4M over 180 days (4 open-market buys, 38 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.8B— | $13.6B+6.2% | $10.8B-20.8% | $13.7B+26.9% | $20.3B+48.6% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-0.33— | $-3.15n/m | $0.15n/m | $0.32+112.0% | $1.69+431.4% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$3.2B— | -$1.8Bn/m | $716Mn/m | $827M+15.5% | $889M+7.5% |
| Gross Margin | 14.3% | 7.4%-6.9pp | 16.0%+8.6pp | 19.8%+3.8pp | 20.6%+0.8pp |
| Operating Margin | -0.8% | -11.0%-10.1pp | -0.7%+10.2pp | 7.3%+8.1pp | 9.3%+1.9pp |
| Net Margin | -1.1% | -11.7%-10.6pp | 4.2%+15.8pp | 1.5%-2.6pp | 6.9%+5.4pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 19.5%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $811M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $889M) · equity value $76.0B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Avg target $85 (last qtr, 14 analysts) → $85 (last mo, 9) (-0.4%).
Buy-rated share 67% → 67% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $0.44 | $0.39 | -11.6% |
| Jul 2026 | $0.39 | $0.42 | +8.6% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.32 | $0.34 | +7.4% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.23 | $0.84 | +265.2% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.27 | $0.21 | -22.2% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.23 | $0.26 | +11.4% |
| May 2025 | $0.73 | $0.30 | -59.1% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.29 | $0.11 | -61.9% |
The QScore of 42 for Carvana Co. indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a strong growth profile, with revenue and EPS growth of 48.6% and 493.0%, respectively, but offset by concerns around value and risk. The stock trades at a premium, with a P/E of 22.5 and EV/EBITDA of 192.9, contributing to a low value score of 32. Meanwhile, its high beta of 3.5 and significant volatility result in a low risk score of 5, pulling down the overall QScore.