MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (42) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.8B— | $13.6B+6.2% | $10.8B-20.8% | $13.7B+26.9% | $20.3B+48.6% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-0.33— | $-3.15n/m | $0.15n/m | $0.32+112.0% | $1.69+431.4% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$3.2B— | -$1.8Bn/m | $716Mn/m | $827M+15.5% | $889M+7.5% |
| Gross Margin | 14.3% | 7.4%-6.9pp | 16.0%+8.6pp | 19.8%+3.8pp | 20.6%+0.8pp |
| Operating Margin | -0.8% | -11.0%-10.1pp | -0.7%+10.2pp | 7.3%+8.1pp | 9.3%+1.9pp |
| Net Margin | -1.1% | -11.7%-10.6pp | 4.2%+15.8pp | 1.5%-2.6pp | 6.9%+5.4pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $340 (last qtr, 10 analysts) → $120 (last mo, 1) (-64.7%).
Buy-rated share 72% → 67% over ~3 months (-5pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $0.32 | $0.34 | +7.4% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.23 | $0.84 | +265.2% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.27 | $0.21 | -22.2% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.23 | $0.26 | +11.4% |
| May 2025 | $0.73 | $0.30 | -59.1% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.29 | $0.11 | -61.9% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.23 | $0.13 | -43.5% |
| Jul 2024 | $-0.04 | $0.03 | +168.0% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$19.8M over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 50 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 42 for Carvana Co. suggests a neutral outlook, driven by a high growth score of 87, which reflects the company's strong revenue and earnings growth, with EPS growth at 493.0%. However, this is offset by lower scores in value, momentum, and risk, with the stock trading at a P/E of 22.8 and exhibiting a bearish 50-day versus 200-day moving average trend. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively close, with only a 4-point difference, indicating a consistent view across different time horizons. The company's high ROE of 57.2% is a notable positive factor.