MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (42) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$25.4M over 180 days (4 open-market buys, 38 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.8B— | $13.6B+6.2% | $10.8B-20.8% | $13.7B+26.9% | $20.3B+48.6% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-0.33— | $-3.15n/m | $0.15n/m | $0.32+112.0% | $1.69+431.4% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$3.2B— | -$1.8Bn/m | $716Mn/m | $827M+15.5% | $889M+7.5% |
| Gross Margin | 14.3% | 7.4%-6.9pp | 16.0%+8.6pp | 19.8%+3.8pp | 20.6%+0.8pp |
| Operating Margin | -0.8% | -11.0%-10.1pp | -0.7%+10.2pp | 7.3%+8.1pp | 9.3%+1.9pp |
| Net Margin | -1.1% | -11.7%-10.6pp | 4.2%+15.8pp | 1.5%-2.6pp | 6.9%+5.4pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 19.5%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $811M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $889M) · equity value $76.0B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Avg target $85 (last qtr, 14 analysts) → $85 (last mo, 9) (-0.4%).
Buy-rated share 67% → 67% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $0.44 | $0.39 | -11.6% |
| Jul 2026 | $0.39 | $0.42 | +8.6% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.32 | $0.34 | +7.4% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.23 | $0.84 | +265.2% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.27 | $0.21 | -22.2% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.23 | $0.26 | +11.4% |
| May 2025 | $0.73 | $0.30 | -59.1% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.29 | $0.11 | -61.9% |
The QScore of 42 for Carvana Co. suggests a neutral outlook, driven by a high growth score of 86, which reflects the company's strong revenue and earnings per share growth. However, this is offset by low scores in value and risk, with the stock trading at a premium as evident from its P/E of 22.5 and EV/EBITDA of 192.9, and exhibiting high volatility with a beta of 3.5. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 2-point difference, indicating a consistent view across different time horizons.