MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (47) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net insider -$96K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 1 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 8.3%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.4B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.4B) · equity value $40.6B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.5B— | $8.6B+14.4% | $9.9B+14.3% | $11.3B+14.6% | $11.9B+5.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $0.46— | $0.64+39.1% | $0.89+39.1% | $1.11+24.7% | $1.14+2.7% |
| Free Cash Flow | $840M— | $844M+0.5% | $1.2B+44.9% | $1.5B+23.6% | $1.4B-4.2% |
| Gross Margin | 22.6% | 23.9%+1.3pp | 26.2%+2.3pp | 26.7%+0.5pp | 25.4%-1.3pp |
| Operating Margin | 10.7% | 13.4%+2.8pp | 15.8%+2.3pp | 16.9%+1.2pp | 16.9%-0.1pp |
| Net Margin | 8.7% | 10.4%+1.8pp | 12.4%+2.0pp | 13.6%+1.1pp | 12.9%-0.7pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $40 (last qtr, 14 analysts) → $40 (last mo, 12) (-0.9%).
Buy-rated share 70% → 67% over ~3 months (-4pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $0.29 | $0.27 | -6.9% |
| Jul 2026 | $0.32 | $0.33 | +3.5% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.24 | $0.24 | +1.1% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.24 | $0.25 | +5.0% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.29 | $0.29 | +1.5% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.33 | $0.33 | +1.2% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.28 | $0.29 | +4.7% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.24 | $0.25 | +4.2% |
The QScore of 47 for CMG indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock's strengths and weaknesses balancing out. CMG scores high on profitability, driven by its strong ROE of 55.7% and operating margin of 14.5%, but is held back by its value and momentum scores, as it trades at a premium with a P/E of 30.0 and exhibits weak price momentum with a 12-month return of -19.3%. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, suggesting a consistent view of the stock's fundamentals.