MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (51) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Avg target $532 (last qtr, 11 analysts) → $556 (last mo, 8) (+4.5%).
Buy-rated share 63% → 62% over ~3 months (-1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $1.46 | $1.64 | +12.3% |
| Mar 2026 | $1.17 | $1.35 | +15.4% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.78 | $0.91 | +16.7% |
| Sep 2025 | $0.53 | $0.67 | +26.4% |
| Jun 2025 | $0.52 | $0.42 | -18.9% |
| Mar 2025 | $0.41 | $0.64 | +54.7% |
| Dec 2024 | $0.66 | $0.54 | -18.2% |
| Sep 2024 | $0.27 | $0.35 | +30.2% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.6B— | $3.6B+0.3% | $4.4B+20.8% | $4.0B-8.5% | $4.8B+18.8% |
| EPS (dil.) | $3.19— | $1.00-68.7% | $1.71+71.0% | $0.58-66.1% | $0.85+46.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $462M— | -$259M-156.0% | $62Mn/m | $378M+508.2% | $665M+76.1% |
| Gross Margin | 47.6% | 43.0%-4.6pp | 42.8%-0.1pp | 42.8%-0.0pp | 42.0%-0.8pp |
| Operating Margin | 13.7% | 7.1%-6.6pp | 8.8%+1.7pp | 4.8%-4.0pp | 6.5%+1.8pp |
| Net Margin | 13.8% | 4.2%-9.6pp | 5.8%+1.6pp | 2.1%-3.7pp | 2.6%+0.5pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$28.3M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 33 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 51 for CIEN suggests a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of strong momentum and growth, but tempered by concerns around value and profitability. The stock's momentum score is particularly high at 62, reflecting its +503.7% return over the past year, while its growth score of 50 is supported by revenue growth of 18.8% and EPS growth of 50.0%. However, CIEN trades at a premium, with a P/E of 155.2, which weighs on its value score of 38. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, indicating some near-term optimism.