MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (53) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $374 avg across 7 analysts.
Buy-rated share 72% → 72% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $1.80 | $2.01 | +11.7% |
| Mar 2026 | $4.75 | $4.89 | +2.9% |
| Nov 2025 | $1.64 | $1.80 | +9.8% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.28 | $1.59 | +24.2% |
| May 2025 | $1.43 | $1.60 | +11.9% |
| Mar 2025 | $3.77 | $4.07 | +8.0% |
| Nov 2024 | $1.54 | $1.55 | +0.6% |
| Aug 2024 | $0.95 | $1.20 | +26.3% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$14.9M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 44 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.3B— | $8.7B-6.6% | $9.7B+11.8% | $10.6B+9.3% | $11.6B+8.8% |
| EPS (dil.) | $6.00— | $3.49-41.8% | $5.23+49.9% | $7.80+49.1% | $9.51+21.9% |
| Free Cash Flow | $480M— | $145M-69.7% | $351M+141.9% | -$29M-108.1% | $172Mn/m |
| Gross Margin | 41.7% | 40.6%-1.1pp | 42.6%+2.0pp | 43.3%+0.7pp | 43.9%+0.6pp |
| Operating Margin | 8.2% | 4.4%-3.8pp | 5.6%+1.2pp | 6.7%+1.1pp | 7.3%+0.6pp |
| Net Margin | 4.4% | 2.6%-1.7pp | 3.5%+0.8pp | 4.7%+1.2pp | 5.3%+0.5pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 7.8%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $165M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $172M) · equity value $22.3B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 53 for Burlington Stores indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of factors. The stock scores high on growth, with notable revenue and EPS growth rates, as well as strong momentum, exhibiting a 27.4% return over the past year. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/E of 36.3, which weighs down its value score. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with the short-term score slightly higher at 56, suggesting no significant divergence in the stock's outlook.