MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (48) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Avg target $344 (last qtr, 8 analysts) → $344 (last mo, 6) (+0.1%).
Buy-rated share 60% → 67% over ~3 months (+7pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $3.34 | $3.47 | +3.9% |
| Apr 2026 | $3.06 | $3.20 | +4.6% |
| Jan 2026 | $3.04 | $3.16 | +3.9% |
| Nov 2025 | $3.38 | $3.39 | +0.3% |
| Jul 2025 | $2.99 | $3.09 | +3.3% |
| May 2025 | $2.83 | $2.69 | -4.9% |
| Feb 2025 | $3.13 | $2.86 | -8.6% |
| Nov 2024 | $3.48 | $3.56 | +2.3% |
Net insider -$824K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 1 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.3B— | $12.7B+23.0% | $12.6B-0.8% | $12.1B-4.0% | $12.0B-0.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $9.12— | $10.08+10.5% | $10.30+2.2% | $17.18+66.8% | $-1.77-110.3% |
| Free Cash Flow | $878M— | $304M-65.4% | -$1.4B-567.6% | -$3.1Bn/m | -$3.8Bn/m |
| Gross Margin | 30.4% | 26.5%-3.9pp | 29.9%+3.4pp | 32.5%+2.6pp | 31.4%-1.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 22.1% | 18.4%-3.7pp | 19.8%+1.4pp | 36.9%+17.1pp | -7.3%-44.2pp |
| Net Margin | 20.3% | 17.8%-2.6pp | 18.3%+0.5pp | 31.6%+13.4pp | -3.3%-34.9pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
The QScore of 48 for APD indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock's short-term score exceeding its long-term score by 9 points. APD scores high on risk, with a low beta and moderate volatility, but is dragged down by its value category due to a high EV/EBITDA of 65.7 and unattractive P/B of 4.9. The stock exhibits strong momentum, with a 12-month return of 5.7% and a bullish moving average trend, but its growth and profitability metrics are weak, with negative EPS growth and ROE near 0%.