MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (53) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.9B— | $4.4B+48.6% | $5.9B+33.8% | $7.0B+19.5% | $9.0B+28.6% |
| EPS (dil.) | $0.66— | $1.07+62.1% | $1.65+54.2% | $2.23+35.2% | $2.75+23.3% |
| Free Cash Flow | $951M— | $448M-52.9% | $2.0B+346.2% | $3.7B+83.8% | $4.3B+15.7% |
| Gross Margin | 63.8% | 61.1%-2.7pp | 61.9%+0.9pp | 64.1%+2.2pp | 64.1%-0.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 31.4% | 34.9%+3.5pp | 38.5%+3.7pp | 42.0%+3.5pp | 42.8%+0.8pp |
| Net Margin | 28.5% | 30.9%+2.3pp | 35.6%+4.8pp | 40.7%+5.1pp | 39.0%-1.7pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$333.9M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 100 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 25.4%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $3.3B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $4.3B) · equity value $263.4B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Avg target $226 (last qtr, 13 analysts) → $245 (last mo, 9) (+8.6%).
Buy-rated share 91% → 97% over ~3 months (+6pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $0.89 | $1.02 | +15.1% |
| May 2026 | $0.81 | $0.87 | +7.7% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.76 | $0.82 | +8.2% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.72 | $0.75 | +4.5% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.65 | $0.73 | +12.5% |
| May 2025 | $0.59 | $0.65 | +10.2% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.57 | $0.65 | +14.6% |
| Nov 2024 | $0.52 | $0.60 | +15.4% |
The QScore of 53 for Arista Networks indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong momentum with a 12-month return of 47.9% and a high RSI of 69.9, as well as solid profitability with an ROE of 30.8%. However, the stock trades at a premium, with a P/E of 65.2 and P/B of 17.8, which weighs on its value score. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, suggesting some near-term strength, but overall the factors are balanced, leading to a medium confidence hold signal.