MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (56) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider $1.8M over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 1 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $264 avg across 22 analysts.
Buy-rated share 40% → 30% over ~3 months (-10pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $5.82 | $5.96 | +2.4% |
| Mar 2026 | $5.87 | $6.06 | +3.2% |
| Dec 2025 | $5.40 | $5.50 | +1.9% |
| Sep 2025 | $5.18 | $5.31 | +2.5% |
| Jun 2025 | $4.97 | $5.06 | +1.8% |
| Mar 2025 | $4.97 | $5.08 | +2.2% |
| Dec 2024 | $4.66 | $4.81 | +3.2% |
| Sep 2024 | $4.53 | $4.65 | +2.6% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.8B— | $17.6B+11.5% | $19.4B+10.2% | $21.5B+10.8% | $23.8B+10.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $10.02— | $10.10+0.8% | $11.83+17.1% | $12.36+4.5% | $16.70+35.1% |
| Free Cash Flow | $6.9B— | $7.4B+7.3% | $6.9B-6.1% | $7.8B+12.7% | $9.9B+25.9% |
| Gross Margin | 88.2% | 87.7%-0.5pp | 87.9%+0.2pp | 89.0%+1.2pp | 88.6%-0.4pp |
| Operating Margin | 36.8% | 34.6%-2.1pp | 34.3%-0.4pp | 31.3%-2.9pp | 36.6%+5.3pp |
| Net Margin | 30.5% | 27.0%-3.5pp | 28.0%+1.0pp | 25.9%-2.1pp | 30.0%+4.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 8.9%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $8.2B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $9.9B) · equity value $103.8B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 56 for Adobe indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong profitability scores, with a notable ROE of 62.4%, and reasonable value metrics, including a P/E of 14.9. However, the stock's growth and momentum scores are more subdued, reflecting slower revenue growth of 10.5% and a 12-month return of -22.0%. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 3-point difference, suggesting a consistent view across different time horizons. Overall, Adobe trades at a premium, exhibiting strong profitability, but with momentum and growth that scores lower.