MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (36) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $212M— | $223M+5.3% | $218M-2.3% | $249M+14.6% | $456M+82.8% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-2.01— | $-2.38n/m | $-1.75n/m | $-4.50n/m | $-0.64n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | -$22M— | -$18Mn/m | -$18Mn/m | -$113Mn/m | -$354Mn/m |
| Gross Margin | 17.8% | 15.1%-2.7pp | 27.1%+12.0pp | 24.8%-2.3pp | 30.0%+5.3pp |
| Operating Margin | -26.8% | -26.5%+0.4pp | -19.0%+7.5pp | -28.4%-9.4pp | -12.0%+16.5pp |
| Net Margin | -25.6% | -29.8%-4.2pp | -25.8%+4.0pp | -74.9%-49.1pp | -8.4%+66.5pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $160 (last qtr, 1 analysts) → $0 (last mo, 0) (-100.0%).
Buy-rated share 50% → 50% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $-0.05 | $-0.07 | -42.9% |
| Feb 2026 | $-0.12 | $-0.01 | +91.7% |
| Nov 2025 | $-0.10 | $-0.09 | +10.0% |
| Aug 2025 | $-0.08 | $-0.16 | -100.0% |
| May 2025 | $-0.04 | $-0.02 | +50.0% |
| Feb 2025 | $-0.02 | $-0.02 | +0.0% |
| Nov 2024 | $-0.17 | $-0.21 | -23.5% |
| Aug 2024 | $-0.29 | $-0.28 | +3.4% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$116.5M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 36 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 36 indicates a neutral outlook for AAOI, with the short-term score slightly higher than the long-term score. AAOI scores high on growth and momentum, driven by its 82.8% revenue growth and 417.3% 12-month return, but is held back by poor profitability and high risk, with a negative ROE and high beta. The stock trades at a premium, with a P/B of 9.3 and EV/EBITDA of -639.7, contributing to its low value score. Overall, the stock exhibits strong momentum but struggles with profitability and valuation.