MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (39) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net insider -$24.7M over 180 days (3 open-market buys, 14 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.1B— | $13.7B+13.7% | $14.8B+7.7% | $17.2B+16.5% | $17.7B+3.0% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-2.69— | $-3.26n/m | $3.58n/m | $7.00+95.5% | $2.18-68.9% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$1.2B— | -$816Mn/m | $3.8Bn/m | $2.5B-34.2% | $129M-94.8% |
| Gross Margin | 11.2% | 12.3%+1.1pp | 37.4%+25.1pp | 43.7%+6.3pp | 32.9%-10.8pp |
| Operating Margin | -12.5% | -8.0%+4.5pp | 18.3%+26.4pp | 23.7%+5.4pp | 10.7%-12.9pp |
| Net Margin | -10.5% | -8.9%+1.6pp | 10.1%+19.0pp | 15.4%+5.3pp | 5.3%-10.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $195 (last qtr, 14 analysts) → $189 (last mo, 10) (-3.1%).
Buy-rated share 90% → 96% over ~3 months (+5pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $1.61 | $0.77 | -52.2% |
| May 2026 | $1.32 | $2.87 | +117.4% |
| Feb 2026 | $2.31 | $0.54 | -76.5% |
| Nov 2025 | $2.08 | $1.75 | -15.9% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.88 | $0.81 | -7.4% |
| May 2025 | $0.54 | $-0.93 | -273.5% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.85 | $1.14 | +34.1% |
| Nov 2024 | $1.20 | $5.40 | +350.0% |
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 4.6%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $2.1B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $129M) · equity value $46.4B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 39 for Vistra Corp indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a strong profitability profile, with an ROE of 41.5%, but offset by weak growth and momentum scores, reflecting a 69% decline in EPS growth and a 30.6% decline in 12-month return. The stock trades at a P/E of 23.1, slightly above its peer group, and exhibits a high ROA of 5.2%. The divergence between long-term and short-term scores suggests some near-term challenges, with the short-term score 7 points lower than the long-term score.