MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (37) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net insider -$10.9M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 9 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $219 (last qtr, 9 analysts) → $236 (last mo, 4) (+7.6%).
Buy-rated share 90% → 95% over ~3 months (+5pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $1.61 | $0.76 | -52.8% |
| May 2026 | $1.32 | $2.87 | +117.4% |
| Feb 2026 | $2.31 | $0.54 | -76.5% |
| Nov 2025 | $2.08 | $1.75 | -15.9% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.88 | $0.81 | -7.4% |
| May 2025 | $0.54 | $-0.93 | -273.5% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.85 | $1.14 | +34.1% |
| Nov 2024 | $1.20 | $5.40 | +350.0% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.3B— | $17.8B+33.8% | $15.5B-12.9% | $19.4B+24.7% | $17.0B-12.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-2.62— | $-3.26n/m | $3.58n/m | $7.00+95.5% | $2.21-68.4% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$1.2B— | -$816Mn/m | $3.8Bn/m | $2.5B-34.2% | $129M-94.8% |
| Gross Margin | 0.5% | 21.4%+20.9pp | 33.3%+11.9pp | 39.7%+6.4pp | 17.5%-22.2pp |
| Operating Margin | -7.4% | 14.8%+22.2pp | 25.2%+10.4pp | 32.1%+7.0pp | 7.9%-24.3pp |
| Net Margin | -9.6% | -6.9%+2.7pp | 9.6%+16.5pp | 13.7%+4.1pp | 5.6%-8.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 2.8%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $2.1B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $129M) · equity value $49.1B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 37 for Vistra Corp indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock scoring high on profitability due to its strong ROE of 41.5%. However, it is dragged down by poor growth scores, driven by significant declines in revenue, EPS, and free cash flow. The stock's value score is moderate, reflecting a P/E of 24.3, while its momentum score is weak due to a 12-month return of -30.3% and bearish moving average trends. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively close, with only a 4-point difference.