MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (59) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Avg target $119 (last qtr, 7 analysts) → $115 (last mo, 1) (-3.6%).
Buy-rated share 44% → 59% over ~3 months (+15pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $1.18 | $1.28 | +8.5% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.77 | $0.78 | +1.2% |
| Nov 2025 | $2.11 | $2.17 | +2.8% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.99 | $1.01 | +2.3% |
| May 2025 | $1.07 | $1.07 | +0.0% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.80 | $0.77 | -3.1% |
| Nov 2024 | $1.91 | $1.87 | -2.1% |
| Aug 2024 | $0.93 | $0.97 | +4.3% |
Net insider -$6.5M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 12 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.4B— | $8.0B+24.4% | $7.5B-5.7% | $7.6B+1.6% | $8.8B+15.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $3.84— | $4.14+7.8% | $4.38+5.8% | $4.42+0.9% | $5.35+21.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$1.9B— | -$1.1Bn/m | -$1.2Bn/m | -$1.6Bn/m | -$821Mn/m |
| Gross Margin | 46.8% | 42.0%-4.8pp | 46.2%+4.2pp | 47.9%+1.7pp | 29.6%-18.3pp |
| Operating Margin | 20.8% | 19.0%-1.8pp | 20.8%+1.7pp | 19.9%-0.9pp | 23.0%+3.1pp |
| Net Margin | 15.5% | 13.5%-2.0pp | 15.4%+1.9pp | 15.5%+0.1pp | 16.5%+1.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
AEE's QScore of 59 indicates a moderately attractive stock, with the short-term score slightly outpacing the long-term score. The stock scores high on momentum, driven by a 24.4% return over the past year and a bullish moving average trend. In contrast, profitability and risk metrics are more neutral, with an ROE of 11.7% and a beta of 0.5. The stock trades at a P/E of 21.1, which is relatively in line with its growth prospects, including 21.4% EPS growth.