MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (60) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Avg target $0 (last qtr, 0 analysts) → $0 (last mo, 0).
Buy-rated share 38% → 9% over ~3 months (-28pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $0.50 | $0.67 | +34.0% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.62 | $0.81 | +30.6% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.71 | $0.75 | +5.3% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.39 | $0.51 | +30.8% |
| May 2025 | $0.37 | $0.27 | -27.0% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.35 | $0.54 | +54.3% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.64 | $0.71 | +10.9% |
| Aug 2024 | $0.36 | $0.38 | +5.6% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
No recent open-market insider transactions.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.1B— | $12.6B+13.2% | $12.7B+0.5% | $12.3B-3.1% | $12.2B-0.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-0.61— | $-0.82n/m | $0.35n/m | $2.36+574.3% | $1.26-46.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$214M— | -$1.8Bn/m | -$4.7Bn/m | -$4.6Bn/m | -$1.6Bn/m |
| Gross Margin | 24.3% | 20.2%-4.2pp | 19.8%-0.4pp | 18.9%-1.0pp | 18.1%-0.8pp |
| Operating Margin | 22.9% | 18.6%-4.3pp | 17.8%-0.7pp | 16.5%-1.3pp | 16.1%-0.4pp |
| Net Margin | -3.7% | -4.3%-0.6pp | 1.9%+6.2pp | 13.7%+11.8pp | 7.8%-6.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
The QScore of 60 for AES indicates a moderately attractive stock, driven by strong value and low risk factors, with a value score of 76 and a risk score of 81. The stock trades at a relatively low P/E of 7.8 and exhibits strong momentum, with a 12-month return of 39.7%. However, growth scores are weighed down by negative revenue and EPS growth, at -0.4% and -47.1%, respectively. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 2-point difference.