MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (59) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.6B— | $19.3B+16.2% | $19.4B+0.3% | $19.9B+2.8% | $21.8B+9.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $4.96— | $4.49-9.5% | $4.24-5.6% | $5.58+31.6% | $6.66+19.4% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$1.9B— | -$1.5Bn/m | -$2.5Bn/m | -$966Mn/m | $6.8Bn/m |
| Gross Margin | 28.1% | 25.2%-2.9pp | 29.0%+3.8pp | 31.9%+2.9pp | 31.8%-0.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 19.6% | 17.6%-2.0pp | 21.3%+3.7pp | 23.9%+2.6pp | 24.3%+0.4pp |
| Net Margin | 15.0% | 11.9%-3.0pp | 11.4%-0.6pp | 14.9%+3.5pp | 16.4%+1.5pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$720K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 2 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $139 (last qtr, 8 analysts) → $0 (last mo, 0) (-100.0%).
Buy-rated share 46% → 58% over ~3 months (+13pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $1.57 | $1.64 | +4.5% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.15 | $1.19 | +3.5% |
| Oct 2025 | $1.81 | $1.80 | -0.6% |
| Jul 2025 | $1.27 | $1.43 | +12.6% |
| May 2025 | $1.40 | $1.54 | +10.0% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.25 | $1.24 | -0.8% |
| Nov 2024 | $1.80 | $1.85 | +2.8% |
| Jul 2024 | $1.23 | $1.25 | +1.6% |
The QScore of 59 for AEP indicates a relatively neutral outlook, with the short-term score of 62 being slightly more favorable than the long-term score of 56. AEP scores high on momentum, driven by its +36.8% return over the past year and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average trend. The stock's growth category is also a positive factor, with notable revenue and EPS growth of 9.4% and 18.9%, respectively. However, its value score is somewhat tempered by a P/E of 20.4 and EV/EBITDA of 14.6, indicating a premium valuation.