MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (56) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Avg target $139 (last qtr, 13 analysts) → $141 (last mo, 9) (+1.2%).
Buy-rated share 54% → 62% over ~3 months (+8pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $2.05 | $2.23 | +8.8% |
| Jul 2026 | $1.48 | $1.36 | -8.1% |
| May 2026 | $1.57 | $1.64 | +4.5% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.15 | $1.19 | +3.5% |
| Oct 2025 | $1.81 | $1.80 | -0.6% |
| Jul 2025 | $1.27 | $1.43 | +12.6% |
| May 2025 | $1.40 | $1.54 | +10.0% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.25 | $1.24 | -0.8% |
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 7.3%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.1B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $6.8B) · equity value $71.5B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.6B— | $19.3B+16.2% | $19.4B+0.3% | $19.9B+2.8% | $21.8B+9.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $4.96— | $4.49-9.5% | $4.24-5.6% | $5.58+31.6% | $6.66+19.4% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$1.9B— | -$1.5Bn/m | -$2.5Bn/m | -$966Mn/m | $6.8Bn/m |
| Gross Margin | 28.1% | 25.2%-2.9pp | 29.0%+3.8pp | 31.9%+2.9pp | 31.8%-0.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 19.6% | 17.6%-2.0pp | 21.3%+3.7pp | 23.9%+2.6pp | 24.3%+0.4pp |
| Net Margin | 15.0% | 11.9%-3.0pp | 11.4%-0.6pp | 14.9%+3.5pp | 16.4%+1.5pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$250K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 1 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
The QScore of 56 for AEP indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong growth and momentum scores, which are offset by a lower value score. The stock's growth score of 58 is supported by notable revenue and EPS growth of 9.4% and 18.9%, respectively. In contrast, its value score of 49 is weighed down by a P/E of 21.3 and EV/EBITDA of 14.0, indicating a premium valuation. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 3-point difference.