MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (53) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Avg target $474 (last qtr, 27 analysts) → $490 (last mo, 14) (+3.5%).
Buy-rated share 79% → 81% over ~3 months (+2pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $4.94 | $6.38 | +29.1% |
| Apr 2026 | $6.46 | $7.23 | +11.9% |
| Jan 2026 | $2.10 | $2.11 | +0.5% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.80 | $2.92 | +4.3% |
| Jul 2025 | $4.45 | $4.08 | -8.3% |
| Apr 2025 | $7.29 | $7.20 | -1.2% |
| Jan 2025 | $6.74 | $6.81 | +1.0% |
| Oct 2024 | $7.00 | $7.15 | +2.1% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $287.6B— | $324.2B+12.7% | $371.6B+14.6% | $400.3B+7.7% | $447.6B+11.8% |
| EPS (dil.) | $18.08— | $21.18+17.1% | $23.86+12.7% | $15.51-35.0% | $13.23-14.7% |
| Free Cash Flow | $19.9B— | $23.4B+17.7% | $25.7B+9.7% | $20.7B-19.4% | $16.1B-22.4% |
| Gross Margin | 24.2% | 24.6%+0.3pp | 24.5%-0.1pp | 22.3%-2.1pp | 18.5%-3.8pp |
| Operating Margin | 8.3% | 8.8%+0.4pp | 8.7%-0.1pp | 8.1%-0.6pp | 4.2%-3.8pp |
| Net Margin | 6.0% | 6.2%+0.2pp | 6.0%-0.2pp | 3.6%-2.4pp | 2.7%-0.9pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$489K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 2 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 5.1%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $20.8B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $16.1B) · equity value $368.3B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 53 for UnitedHealth Group indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock's value and risk profiles scoring relatively high, while growth and momentum are more mixed. The stock trades at a P/E of 26.1, which is somewhat elevated, but its risk score is boosted by a low beta of 0.6. Momentum is moderate, with a 12-month return of 60.7%, although recent performance has been more subdued, with a 3-month return of just 2.3%. The long-term and short-term scores are closely aligned, suggesting a consistent outlook.