MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (59) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Low explanatory power (R² 0.08) — the factor model explains little of this stock's return variation, so these exposures are noisy. Interpret with caution.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.6B— | $8.9B+17.9% | $9.9B+10.5% | $11.0B+11.7% | $12.1B+9.6% |
| EPS (dil.) | $9.01— | $12.82+42.3% | $13.89+8.3% | $-2.08-115.0% | $15.32n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.4B— | $3.9B+63.0% | $3.3B-16.5% | -$790M-124.1% | $3.2Bn/m |
| Gross Margin | 88.1% | 87.9%-0.2pp | 87.2%-0.7pp | 86.1%-1.1pp | 85.0%-1.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 36.7% | 48.2%+11.5pp | 38.8%-9.4pp | -2.1%-40.9pp | 39.4%+41.5pp |
| Net Margin | 30.9% | 37.2%+6.3pp | 36.7%-0.5pp | -4.9%-41.5pp | 32.7%+37.6pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $591 avg across 13 analysts.
Buy-rated share 82% → 79% over ~3 months (-3pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $4.74 | $4.73 | -0.2% |
| May 2026 | $4.24 | $4.47 | +5.4% |
| Feb 2026 | $5.11 | $5.03 | -1.6% |
| Nov 2025 | $4.57 | $4.80 | +5.0% |
| Aug 2025 | $4.29 | $4.52 | +5.4% |
| May 2025 | $4.25 | $4.06 | -4.5% |
| Feb 2025 | $4.02 | $3.98 | -1.0% |
| Nov 2024 | $4.14 | $4.38 | +5.8% |
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 11.6%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.9B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $3.2B) · equity value $142.0B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$10.2M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 12 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 59 indicates a neutral outlook for Vertex Pharmaceuticals, driven by strong growth and momentum scores, which are offset by lower value and risk scores. The stock's high growth score is fueled by impressive EPS growth of 843.3% and revenue growth of 9.6%, while its momentum score is supported by a 12-month return of 34.3% and a bullish moving average trend. However, the stock trades at a premium, with a P/E of 32.3, contributing to its lower value score. Overall, the long-term and short-term scores are closely aligned, suggesting a consistent view of the stock's prospects.