MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (59) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Low explanatory power (R² 0.08) — the factor model explains little of this stock's return variation, so these exposures are noisy. Interpret with caution.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Avg target $541 (last qtr, 12 analysts) → $559 (last mo, 9) (+3.3%).
Buy-rated share 82% → 77% over ~3 months (-5pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $4.74 | $4.73 | -0.2% |
| May 2026 | $4.24 | $4.47 | +5.4% |
| Feb 2026 | $5.11 | $5.03 | -1.6% |
| Nov 2025 | $4.57 | $4.80 | +5.0% |
| Aug 2025 | $4.29 | $4.52 | +5.4% |
| May 2025 | $4.25 | $4.06 | -4.5% |
| Feb 2025 | $4.02 | $3.98 | -1.0% |
| Nov 2024 | $4.14 | $4.38 | +5.8% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.6B— | $8.9B+17.9% | $9.9B+10.5% | $11.0B+11.7% | $12.1B+9.6% |
| EPS (dil.) | $9.01— | $12.82+42.3% | $13.89+8.3% | $-2.08-115.0% | $15.32n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.4B— | $3.9B+63.0% | $3.3B-16.5% | -$790M-124.1% | $3.2Bn/m |
| Gross Margin | 88.1% | 87.9%-0.2pp | 87.2%-0.7pp | 86.1%-1.1pp | 85.0%-1.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 36.7% | 48.2%+11.5pp | 38.8%-9.4pp | -2.1%-40.9pp | 39.4%+41.5pp |
| Net Margin | 30.9% | 37.2%+6.3pp | 36.7%-0.5pp | -4.9%-41.5pp | 32.7%+37.6pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$69.6M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 51 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 11.1%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.9B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $3.2B) · equity value $133.7B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 59 for Vertex Pharmaceuticals indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong growth and profitability scores, which are offset by lower value and risk scores. The stock scores high on growth, with notable revenue and EPS growth of 9.6% and 843.3%, respectively. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/E of 30.4, contributing to a lower value score. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, suggesting a consistent outlook.