MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (54) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $748M— | $847M+13.3% | $1.1B+25.0% | $1.2B+12.9% | $1.4B+17.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $0.14— | $-0.05-137.8% | $2.32n/m | $0.36-84.5% | $4.52+1155.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$12M— | -$75Mn/m | $82Mn/m | $147M+79.4% | $175M+18.8% |
| Gross Margin | 63.6% | 63.2%-0.4pp | 64.5%+1.3pp | 63.2%-1.3pp | 67.1%+3.9pp |
| Operating Margin | -1.0% | 0.7%+1.7pp | 6.9%+6.2pp | 0.8%-6.2pp | 13.5%+12.7pp |
| Net Margin | 0.7% | -0.2%-0.9pp | 8.6%+8.8pp | 1.2%-7.4pp | 12.7%+11.5pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$981K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 4 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $335 (last qtr, 1 analysts) → $0 (last mo, 0) (-100.0%).
Buy-rated share 22% → 24% over ~3 months (+1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $1.04 | $0.82 | -21.2% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.11 | $1.18 | +6.3% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.93 | $0.97 | +4.4% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.81 | $0.86 | +6.2% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.66 | $0.83 | +25.8% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.88 | $0.97 | +10.2% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.69 | $0.85 | +23.2% |
| Jul 2024 | $0.56 | $0.64 | +14.3% |
The QScore of 54 for Penumbra indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a strong growth profile with revenue and EPS growth of 17.5% and 1169.4%, respectively. However, this is offset by a low value score due to the stock trading at a premium, with a P/E of 72.3 and P/B of 8.4. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, but the difference is not significant. The stock exhibits strong momentum over the past year, with a 25% return, but has pulled back recently, with a -5.9% return over the past three months.