MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (58) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $748M— | $847M+13.3% | $1.1B+25.0% | $1.2B+12.9% | $1.4B+17.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $0.14— | $-0.05-137.8% | $2.32n/m | $0.36-84.5% | $4.52+1155.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$12M— | -$75Mn/m | $82Mn/m | $147M+79.4% | $175M+18.8% |
| Gross Margin | 63.6% | 63.2%-0.4pp | 64.5%+1.3pp | 63.2%-1.3pp | 67.1%+3.9pp |
| Operating Margin | -1.0% | 0.7%+1.7pp | 6.9%+6.2pp | 7.2%+0.3pp | 13.5%+6.3pp |
| Net Margin | 0.7% | -0.2%-0.9pp | 8.6%+8.8pp | 1.2%-7.4pp | 12.7%+11.5pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Buy-rated share 24% → 19% over ~3 months (-5pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $1.16 | $0.88 | -24.1% |
| May 2026 | $1.04 | $0.82 | -21.2% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.11 | $1.18 | +6.3% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.93 | $0.97 | +4.4% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.81 | $0.86 | +6.2% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.66 | $0.83 | +25.8% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.88 | $0.97 | +10.2% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.69 | $0.85 | +23.2% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$865K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 2 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 11.7%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $135M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $175M) · equity value $12.9B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 58 for Penumbra, Inc. indicates a moderately positive outlook, driven by strong growth and low risk factors, which score 69 and 84, respectively. The stock's high price multiples, including a P/E of 80.1, weigh on its value score, which comes in at 35. With a short-term score of 60 and a long-term score of 57, there is relatively little divergence between the two timeframes, suggesting a consistent view of the company's prospects. The stock exhibits strong momentum, with a 12-month return of 31.7% and a bullish moving average crossover.