MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (48) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$477.2M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 65 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Avg target $276 (last qtr, 16 analysts) → $292 (last mo, 5) (+5.9%).
Buy-rated share 79% → 81% over ~3 months (+2pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $1.47 | $1.65 | +12.2% |
| Aug 2026 | $1.32 | $1.47 | +11.4% |
| Apr 2026 | $1.27 | $1.50 | +18.1% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.23 | $1.33 | +8.1% |
| Oct 2025 | $1.07 | $1.25 | +16.8% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.05 | $1.19 | +13.3% |
| May 2025 | $0.96 | $1.14 | +19.0% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.99 | $1.00 | +1.0% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.8B— | $3.8B+34.6% | $4.2B+8.6% | $4.5B+7.3% | $5.1B+13.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-5.45— | $-6.86n/m | $-5.54n/m | $-0.66n/m | $0.21n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | -$148M— | -$335Mn/m | $364Mn/m | $657M+80.9% | $1.0B+57.1% |
| Gross Margin | 48.9% | 47.4%-1.5pp | 49.2%+1.8pp | 51.1%+1.9pp | 48.9%-2.2pp |
| Operating Margin | -32.2% | -26.9%+5.3pp | -9.4%+17.5pp | -0.9%+8.5pp | 3.4%+4.4pp |
| Net Margin | -33.4% | -32.8%+0.6pp | -24.4%+8.4pp | -2.5%+22.0pp | 0.7%+3.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 8.3%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $685M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.0B) · equity value $31.5B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 48 for Twilio indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of positive and negative factors. The stock scores high on momentum, with an 83.9% return over the past year, and exhibits strong growth, with 133.3% EPS growth. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/E of 24.6 and EV/EBITDA of 74.9, and scores lower on risk due to its high volatility and beta of 1.4. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, suggesting a consistent view of the stock's prospects.