HIGH confidence: 100% data completeness across all factors and the composite score (29) is in decisive short territory. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $477 (last qtr, 10 analysts) → $457 (last mo, 4) (-4.1%).
Buy-rated share 88% → 90% over ~3 months (+2pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $3.21 | $-2.00 | -162.3% |
| May 2026 | $5.01 | $1.33 | -73.5% |
| Feb 2026 | $2.62 | $-7.60 | -390.1% |
| Nov 2025 | $3.18 | $4.25 | +33.6% |
| Aug 2025 | $-1.04 | $1.50 | +244.2% |
| May 2025 | $1.03 | $-2.94 | -385.4% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.77 | $2.07 | +168.8% |
| Nov 2024 | $0.60 | $3.16 | +430.2% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.8B— | $2.4B+35.9% | $2.4B+1.1% | $2.1B-15.0% | $2.6B+26.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-21.72— | $-28.66n/m | $10.38n/m | $17.67+70.2% | $-4.79-127.1% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$518M— | -$125Mn/m | $516Mn/m | $54M-89.5% | $409M+657.4% |
| Gross Margin | 13.6% | 31.9%+18.3pp | 43.3%+11.3pp | 32.0%-11.2pp | 38.1%+6.1pp |
| Operating Margin | -25.1% | 4.3%+29.4pp | 3.4%-0.9pp | 8.0%+4.5pp | 0.6%-7.4pp |
| Net Margin | -55.7% | -53.4%+2.3pp | 25.1%+78.6pp | 48.1%+23.0pp | -8.3%-56.5pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 7.2%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $326M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $409M) · equity value $16.2B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net insider -$988K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 1 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 29 for Talen Energy Corporation indicates a relatively weak overall profile, driven down by low scores in Value and Profitability, with the stock trading at a significant premium as evidenced by its high EV/EBITDA of 35.5 and poor returns on equity and assets. The Growth category scores relatively high, primarily due to a substantial increase in free cash flow growth of 657.4%. The long-term and short-term scores are somewhat divergent, with the short-term score being 9 points higher, potentially reflecting recent stability in the stock's price movement.