MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (50) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-12.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $340 avg across 4 analysts.
Buy-rated share 91% → 91% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | $4.70 | $5.68 | +20.9% |
| Jun 2026 | $4.14 | $4.85 | +17.1% |
| Mar 2026 | $3.29 | $4.73 | +43.8% |
| Jan 2026 | $3.68 | $3.83 | +4.1% |
| Sep 2025 | $3.05 | $3.58 | +17.4% |
| Jun 2025 | $2.71 | $2.99 | +10.3% |
| Mar 2025 | $2.91 | $2.80 | -3.8% |
| Jan 2025 | $3.07 | $3.09 | +0.7% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$10.6M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 56 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $31.6B— | $62.3B+97.2% | $57.6B-7.7% | $58.5B+1.6% | $62.5B+6.9% |
| EPS (dil.) | $6.24— | $6.77+8.5% | $6.70-1.0% | $7.95+18.7% | $9.95+25.2% |
| Free Cash Flow | $755M— | -$167M-122.1% | $1.3Bn/m | $1.0B-17.1% | $1.4B+33.3% |
| Gross Margin | 5.6% | 5.7%+0.1pp | 6.2%+0.5pp | 6.1%-0.2pp | 7.0%+0.9pp |
| Operating Margin | 2.3% | 2.0%-0.3pp | 2.3%+0.3pp | 2.1%-0.2pp | 2.3%+0.2pp |
| Net Margin | 1.2% | 1.0%-0.2pp | 1.1%+0.0pp | 1.2%+0.1pp | 1.3%+0.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 13.9%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.2B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.4B) · equity value $18.8B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 50 for SNX suggests a neutral outlook, with the stock scoring high on value and risk factors, but lower on profitability. The value score is driven by a relatively low P/E of 14.3 and EV/EBITDA of 9.3, indicating the stock trades at a discount. In contrast, profitability scores are dragged down by a low operating margin of 2.7% and negative FCF yield, while momentum exhibits strong 12-month returns of 52%, albeit with a recent 3-month decline of 6.8%. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 2-point difference.