MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (44) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-12.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.2B— | $7.1B+37.1% | $15.0B+110.4% | $22.0B+46.6% | $39.1B+77.8% |
| EPS (dil.) | $1.14— | $2.01+76.3% | $1.68-16.4% | $1.68+0.0% | $3.26+94.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$486M— | $627Mn/m | -$2.6B-516.4% | $1.5Bn/m | -$7.0B-555.0% |
| Gross Margin | 15.4% | 18.0%+2.6pp | 13.8%-4.3pp | 11.1%-2.7pp | 10.8%-0.2pp |
| Operating Margin | 6.5% | 10.7%+4.2pp | 8.1%-2.6pp | 5.7%-2.4pp | 7.1%+1.4pp |
| Net Margin | 5.5% | 9.0%+3.5pp | 7.7%-1.3pp | 4.8%-2.9pp | 5.7%+0.9pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $41 avg across 7 analysts.
Buy-rated share 26% → 26% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $0.92 | $1.70 | +84.2% |
| May 2026 | $0.62 | $0.84 | +36.1% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.49 | $0.69 | +40.8% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.37 | $0.35 | -6.6% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.45 | $0.41 | -7.9% |
| May 2025 | $0.41 | $0.31 | -24.5% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.58 | $0.51 | -12.7% |
| Nov 2024 | $0.73 | $0.75 | +2.5% |
Net insider -$24.4M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 8 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 44 for SMCI suggests a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of positive and negative factors. The stock scores high on value, with a P/E of 9.0 and P/B of 1.4, and exhibits strong growth, with revenue growth of 77.8% and EPS growth of 106.2%. However, its profitability and risk profiles are concerning, with an ROE of 25.1% and a beta of 2.0, and the stock's momentum is also impacted by a -37.5% 12-month return, although it has shown some recent strength with a 15.0% 3-month return.