MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (52) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net insider -$1.3M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 9 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $29.1B— | $32.3B+11.0% | $36.0B+11.6% | $36.2B+0.6% | $37.2B+2.8% |
| EPS (dil.) | $3.54— | $2.83-20.1% | $3.58+26.5% | $3.31-7.5% | $1.63-50.8% |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.5B— | $2.6B-43.4% | $3.7B+43.8% | $3.3B-9.7% | $2.4B-26.4% |
| Gross Margin | 28.9% | 26.0%-2.9pp | 27.4%+1.4pp | 26.8%-0.5pp | 24.2%-2.7pp |
| Operating Margin | 16.8% | 14.3%-2.4pp | 16.3%+2.0pp | 15.0%-1.4pp | 9.6%-5.3pp |
| Net Margin | 14.5% | 10.2%-4.3pp | 11.5%+1.3pp | 10.4%-1.1pp | 5.0%-5.4pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $111 (last qtr, 10 analysts) → $0 (last mo, 0) (-100.0%).
Buy-rated share 44% → 46% over ~3 months (+2pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $0.43 | $0.50 | +17.6% |
| Jan 2026 | $0.59 | $0.56 | -4.4% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.56 | $0.52 | -6.5% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.65 | $0.50 | -22.7% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.49 | $0.41 | -15.6% |
| Jan 2025 | $0.68 | $0.69 | +1.5% |
| Oct 2024 | $1.03 | $0.80 | -22.3% |
| Jul 2024 | $0.93 | $0.93 | +0.0% |
The QScore of 52 for SBUX indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong momentum and low risk, but offset by poor value and profitability metrics. The stock's high P/E of 78.8 and negative EPS growth of -50.8% weigh on its value and growth scores, while its 12-month return of 13.3% and bullish 50d-vs-200d MA contribute to its momentum score. Notably, the short-term score of 57 diverges from the long-term score of 46, suggesting a recent uptrend. Overall, SBUX trades at a premium and exhibits strong momentum, but its profitability metrics, such as an ROE of -18.3%, are a concern.