MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (51) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-12.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $32.3B— | $36.0B+11.6% | $36.2B+0.6% | $37.2B+2.8% | $37.9B+2.0% |
| EPS (dil.) | $2.83— | $3.58+26.5% | $3.31-7.5% | $1.63-50.8% | $2.21+35.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.6B— | $3.7B+43.8% | $3.3B-9.7% | $2.4B-26.4% | $3.7B+52.5% |
| Gross Margin | 26.0% | 27.4%+1.4pp | 26.8%-0.5pp | 24.2%-2.7pp | 67.7%+43.6pp |
| Operating Margin | 14.3% | 16.3%+2.0pp | 15.0%-1.4pp | 9.6%-5.3pp | 9.7%+0.1pp |
| Net Margin | 10.2% | 11.5%+1.3pp | 10.4%-1.1pp | 5.0%-5.4pp | 6.7%+1.7pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 6.1%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $3.2B (avg FY2024–FY2026; latest year $3.7B) · equity value $119.2B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $112 avg across 3 analysts.
Buy-rated share 46% → 41% over ~3 months (-5pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $0.72 | $0.80 | +11.3% |
| Jul 2026 | $0.66 | $0.85 | +28.8% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.43 | $0.50 | +17.6% |
| Jan 2026 | $0.59 | $0.56 | -4.4% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.56 | $0.52 | -6.5% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.65 | $0.50 | -22.7% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.49 | $0.41 | -15.6% |
| Jan 2025 | $0.68 | $0.69 | +1.5% |
Net insider -$1.4M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 8 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
The QScore of 51 for SBUX indicates a neutral outlook, with the short-term score slightly exceeding the long-term score. The stock's high growth and momentum scores, driven by 35.6% EPS growth and a 24.2% 12-month return, are offset by its low value score due to a P/E of 47.3 and high EV/EBITDA of 23.2, indicating it trades at a premium. The company also exhibits strong risk characteristics, with a beta of 1.0 and relatively low volatility.