MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (48) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $789M— | $1.0B+27.4% | $816M-18.8% | $987M+21.0% | $1.0B+1.8% |
| EPS (dil.) | $2.86— | $4.49+57.0% | $2.46-45.2% | $4.06+65.0% | $2.78-31.5% |
| Free Cash Flow | $163M— | $118M-27.5% | $149M+26.3% | $214M+43.1% | $300M+40.2% |
| Gross Margin | 54.4% | 53.6%-0.7pp | 51.5%-2.1pp | 52.2%+0.7pp | 49.7%-2.5pp |
| Operating Margin | 19.8% | 23.5%+3.7pp | 14.2%-9.3pp | 19.0%+4.7pp | 13.2%-5.7pp |
| Net Margin | 18.0% | 22.2%+4.2pp | 14.9%-7.4pp | 20.4%+5.6pp | 13.6%-6.8pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
No recent open-market insider transactions.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $389 (last qtr, 8 analysts) → $383 (last mo, 4) (-1.5%).
Buy-rated share 100% → 100% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $1.69 | $1.93 | +14.2% |
| May 2026 | $1.42 | $1.42 | +0.0% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.28 | $1.26 | -1.6% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.89 | $0.92 | +2.9% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.27 | $1.25 | -1.6% |
| May 2025 | $1.47 | $1.51 | +2.7% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.41 | $1.51 | +7.1% |
| Oct 2024 | $1.32 | $1.34 | +1.5% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 19.9%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $221M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $300M) · equity value $16.9B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 48 for ONTO suggests a neutral outlook, driven by strong momentum with a 12-month return of 208% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average. However, this is offset by low scores in value, due to a high P/E of 126.5, and growth, which is hindered by a -32% EPS growth rate. The long-term and short-term scores diverge, with the short-term score being 8 points higher, indicating some discrepancy between the company's current performance and its long-term prospects.