MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (55) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.3B— | $1.9B+42.9% | $2.3B+21.8% | $2.6B+15.3% | $2.9B+11.8% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-5.73— | $-5.16n/m | $-2.17n/m | $0.06n/m | $1.31+2083.3% |
| Free Cash Flow | $87M— | $63M-27.6% | $488M+674.6% | $730M+49.6% | $863M+18.2% |
| Gross Margin | 69.5% | 70.6%+1.1pp | 74.3%+3.7pp | 76.3%+2.0pp | 77.4%+1.0pp |
| Operating Margin | -59.1% | -43.7%+15.4pp | -22.8%+20.9pp | -2.4%+20.4pp | 5.2%+7.7pp |
| Net Margin | -65.2% | -43.9%+21.4pp | -15.7%+28.2pp | 1.1%+16.8pp | 8.1%+7.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 8.5%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $694M (avg FY2024–FY2026; latest year $863M) · equity value $34.4B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $196 avg across 64 analysts.
Buy-rated share 72% → 77% over ~3 months (+6pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $0.96 | $1.05 | +8.8% |
| May 2026 | $0.85 | $0.91 | +6.7% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.85 | $0.90 | +6.4% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.76 | $0.82 | +8.2% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.85 | $0.91 | +7.4% |
| May 2025 | $0.77 | $0.86 | +11.7% |
| Mar 2025 | $0.74 | $0.78 | +6.0% |
| Dec 2024 | $0.58 | $0.67 | +15.5% |
Net insider -$37.5M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 37 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 55 for OKTA indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of strong growth and momentum scores, which are offset by lower value and profitability scores. The stock's high P/E of 121.8 and P/B of 5.1 contribute to its low value score, while its revenue growth of 11.8% and 12-month return of 135.3% boost its growth and momentum scores. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively close, with the short-term score 8 points higher, suggesting some near-term optimism. OKTA exhibits strong momentum, but trades at a premium.