MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (46) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $625M— | $820M+31.1% | $1.1B+32.0% | $1.7B+56.7% | $2.3B+35.9% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-5.21— | $-5.57n/m | $-3.78n/m | $-1.53n/m | $-1.52n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | -$376M— | -$479Mn/m | -$286Mn/m | $69Mn/m | $109M+57.6% |
| Gross Margin | 49.1% | 44.4%-4.7pp | 45.5%+1.1pp | 60.3%+14.8pp | 64.8%+4.6pp |
| Operating Margin | -74.8% | -66.0%+8.9pp | -41.2%+24.7pp | -13.1%+28.1pp | -13.4%-0.3pp |
| Net Margin | -75.4% | -66.8%+8.6pp | -40.2%+26.6pp | -11.2%+28.9pp | -9.0%+2.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$30.4M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 86 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $314 (last qtr, 19 analysts) → $340 (last mo, 11) (+8.3%).
Buy-rated share 89% → 86% over ~3 months (-3pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $-0.49 | $-0.47 | +4.8% |
| May 2026 | $-0.54 | $-0.56 | -3.3% |
| Feb 2026 | $-0.51 | $0.35 | +168.4% |
| Nov 2025 | $-0.39 | $-0.64 | -65.9% |
| Aug 2025 | $-0.62 | $-0.74 | -20.2% |
| May 2025 | $-0.64 | $-0.50 | +21.9% |
| Feb 2025 | $-0.38 | $-0.41 | -7.6% |
| Nov 2024 | $-0.57 | $-0.26 | +54.4% |
The QScore of 46 for Natera indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a divergence between its long-term and short-term scores. The stock scores high on momentum, with a 12-month return of 95.4% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average, but is held back by its value category, which is negatively impacted by its high P/E and P/B ratios. The company exhibits strong revenue and free cash flow growth, but its profitability is hindered by negative ROE and operating margins.