MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (38) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $27.0B— | $31.5B+16.9% | $28.8B-8.6% | $28.1B-2.4% | $30.7B+9.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $8.93— | $5.17-42.1% | $-1.12-121.7% | $4.99n/m | $4.01-19.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $224M— | -$7M-103.1% | -$819Mn/m | $1.8Bn/m | $766M-58.2% |
| Gross Margin | 24.1% | 13.0%-11.1pp | 8.0%-5.0pp | 21.4%+13.5pp | 21.8%+0.4pp |
| Operating Margin | 12.4% | 6.4%-6.0pp | 1.3%-5.1pp | 8.6%+7.3pp | 6.0%-2.6pp |
| Net Margin | 8.1% | 3.9%-4.2pp | -0.7%-4.6pp | 4.0%+4.7pp | 2.8%-1.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 2.7%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $594M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $766M) · equity value $20.1B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net insider -$4.3M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 3 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $173 (last qtr, 13 analysts) → $157 (last mo, 9) (-9.5%).
Buy-rated share 83% → 83% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $1.69 | $1.49 | -11.8% |
| May 2026 | $1.77 | $1.48 | -16.4% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.97 | $1.03 | +6.0% |
| Nov 2025 | $2.14 | $2.75 | +28.5% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.74 | $1.68 | -3.4% |
| May 2025 | $1.75 | $2.68 | +53.1% |
| Feb 2025 | $2.00 | $1.52 | -24.0% |
| Nov 2024 | $2.00 | $1.90 | -5.0% |
The QScore of 38 for NRG Energy indicates a neutral outlook, driven by mixed category scores. The stock scores relatively high on value and profitability, with a P/E of 25.2 and ROE near 25%, but is dragged down by weak momentum, exhibiting a 12-month return of -46.4% and a bearish 50-day versus 200-day moving average trend. Notably, the long-term score is 8 points higher than the short-term score, suggesting a divergence in the stock's prospects over different time horizons.