MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (42) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net insider -$30.6M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 69 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $370 avg across 3 analysts.
Buy-rated share 80% → 82% over ~3 months (+2pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $1.35 | $1.40 | +3.7% |
| May 2026 | $1.07 | $1.09 | +1.9% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.99 | $1.02 | +3.0% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.93 | $0.94 | +1.2% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.89 | $0.90 | +1.1% |
| May 2025 | $0.84 | $0.85 | +1.1% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.78 | $0.79 | +1.3% |
| Nov 2024 | $0.73 | $0.73 | -0.4% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $607M— | $675M+11.2% | $648M-4.0% | $730M+12.5% | $967M+32.6% |
| EPS (dil.) | $0.54— | $6.18+1044.4% | $1.28-79.3% | $1.04-18.8% | $-0.73-170.2% |
| Free Cash Flow | $130M— | $150M+15.3% | $142M-5.5% | $140M-1.4% | $153M+9.3% |
| Gross Margin | 51.2% | 56.4%+5.1pp | 55.8%-0.5pp | 50.9%-4.9pp | 54.9%+4.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 13.3% | 19.7%+6.3pp | 18.0%-1.7pp | 11.5%-6.5pp | 13.4%+1.9pp |
| Net Margin | 6.3% | 65.2%+58.9pp | 14.1%-51.0pp | 10.5%-3.6pp | -5.6%-16.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 26.4%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $145M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $153M) · equity value $17.9B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
MTSI's QScore of 42 indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of factors. The stock scores high on profitability, with an ROE of 17.1% and a gross margin of 56.6%, but is held back by its value category, which is negatively impacted by a high P/E of 73.3 and EV/EBITDA of 51.0. Momentum is also a concern, with a bearish 50-day versus 200-day moving average and a recent 3-month return of -9.6%, despite a strong 12-month return of 51.7%. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 2-point difference.