MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (49) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Avg target $140 (last qtr, 12 analysts) → $134 (last mo, 6) (-4.0%).
Buy-rated share 66% → 68% over ~3 months (+2pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $-0.27 | $-0.13 | +51.9% |
| Apr 2026 | $-1.47 | $-1.28 | +12.9% |
| Feb 2026 | $2.01 | $2.04 | +1.5% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.36 | $2.58 | +9.3% |
| Jul 2025 | $2.03 | $2.13 | +4.9% |
| Apr 2025 | $2.13 | $2.22 | +4.2% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.85 | $1.72 | -7.0% |
| Oct 2024 | $1.50 | $1.57 | +4.7% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $48.7B— | $59.3B+21.7% | $60.1B+1.4% | $64.2B+6.7% | $64.9B+1.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $5.14— | $5.71+11.1% | $0.14-97.5% | $6.74+4714.3% | $7.28+8.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | $9.7B— | $14.7B+52.2% | $9.1B-37.8% | $18.1B+97.9% | $12.4B-31.7% |
| Gross Margin | 72.0% | 70.6%-1.4pp | 73.2%+2.5pp | 76.3%+3.1pp | 72.0%-4.3pp |
| Operating Margin | 27.1% | 30.8%+3.7pp | 4.9%-25.9pp | 31.5%+26.6pp | 36.2%+4.7pp |
| Net Margin | 26.8% | 24.5%-2.3pp | 0.6%-23.9pp | 26.7%+26.1pp | 28.1%+1.4pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$13.5M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 11 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 2.7%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $13.2B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $12.4B) · equity value $329.6B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 49 for MRK indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of factors. The stock scores high on momentum, exhibiting strong momentum with a 12-month return of 66.4% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average trend. However, it trades at a premium, with a high P/E of 105.9, which weighs down its value score. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively close, with the short-term score 5 points higher, suggesting some near-term strength.