MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (46) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.2B— | $1.8B+48.5% | $1.8B+1.5% | $2.2B+21.2% | $2.8B+26.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $5.05— | $9.05+79.2% | $8.76-3.2% | $36.59+317.7% | $12.75-65.2% |
| Free Cash Flow | $225M— | $188M-16.4% | $581M+209.1% | $642M+10.6% | $666M+3.7% |
| Gross Margin | 56.8% | 58.4%+1.7pp | 56.1%-2.4pp | 55.3%-0.8pp | 55.2%-0.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 21.7% | 29.4%+7.6pp | 26.5%-2.9pp | 24.4%-2.0pp | 26.1%+1.7pp |
| Net Margin | 20.0% | 24.4%+4.4pp | 23.5%-0.9pp | 81.0%+57.5pp | 22.1%-58.9pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $1933 (last qtr, 3 analysts) → $1933 (last mo, 3) (+0.0%).
Buy-rated share 82% → 88% over ~3 months (+5pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $5.87 | $6.50 | +10.7% |
| Apr 2026 | $4.90 | $5.10 | +4.1% |
| Feb 2026 | $4.74 | $4.79 | +1.1% |
| Oct 2025 | $4.64 | $4.73 | +1.9% |
| Jul 2025 | $4.12 | $4.21 | +2.2% |
| May 2025 | $4.01 | $4.04 | +0.7% |
| Feb 2025 | $4.01 | $4.09 | +2.0% |
| Oct 2024 | $3.97 | $4.06 | +2.3% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$219.9M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 92 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 18.2%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $630M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $666M) · equity value $70.0B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 46 for MPWR suggests a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of factors. The stock scores high on momentum and profitability, with a 12-month return of 78.7% and an ROE of 21.8%, but is held back by its value score, which is negatively impacted by a high P/E of 86.9. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 2-point difference, indicating a consistent view across different time horizons. Overall, MPWR trades at a premium, exhibiting strong momentum and profitability, but with elevated risk due to its high beta and volatility.