MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (55) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net insider -$224.6M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 21 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $28.3B— | $28.5B+0.8% | $34.1B+19.6% | $45.0B+32.0% | $65.2B+44.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $5.85— | $6.57+12.3% | $5.80-11.7% | $11.71+101.9% | $22.95+96.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.4B— | $4.6B-14.6% | -$3.2B-168.5% | $414Mn/m | $9.0B+2065.6% |
| Gross Margin | 74.2% | 76.8%+2.6pp | 79.2%+2.5pp | 81.3%+2.1pp | 83.8%+2.5pp |
| Operating Margin | 28.0% | 30.3%+2.3pp | 31.6%+1.3pp | 38.9%+7.2pp | 45.6%+6.7pp |
| Net Margin | 19.7% | 21.9%+2.2pp | 15.4%-6.5pp | 23.5%+8.2pp | 31.7%+8.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $1274 (last qtr, 10 analysts) → $1239 (last mo, 3) (-2.7%).
Buy-rated share 75% → 77% over ~3 months (+2pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $6.97 | $8.55 | +22.7% |
| Feb 2026 | $6.91 | $7.54 | +9.1% |
| Oct 2025 | $5.69 | $7.02 | +23.4% |
| Aug 2025 | $5.60 | $6.31 | +12.7% |
| May 2025 | $3.26 | $3.34 | +2.5% |
| Feb 2025 | $5.03 | $5.32 | +5.8% |
| Oct 2024 | $1.47 | $1.18 | -19.7% |
| Aug 2024 | $2.60 | $3.92 | +50.8% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
The QScore of 55 for Eli Lilly and Company suggests a neutral outlook, driven by strong growth and momentum scores, which are offset by a low value score due to premium valuations, including a P/E of 42.8. The company exhibits strong momentum, with a 52.5% return over the past year, and scores high on profitability, with an ROE near 101%. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with the short-term score slightly higher at 59, indicating a consistent outlook.