MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (51) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Net insider -$67.1M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 10 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 7.6%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $19.3B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $19.7B) · equity value $663.8B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $78.7B— | $80.0B+1.6% | $85.2B+6.5% | $88.8B+4.3% | $94.2B+6.0% |
| EPS (dil.) | $7.81— | $6.73-13.8% | $13.72+103.9% | $5.79-57.8% | $11.03+90.5% |
| Free Cash Flow | $19.8B— | $17.2B-13.0% | $18.2B+6.2% | $19.8B+8.7% | $19.7B-0.7% |
| Gross Margin | 70.3% | 69.3%-1.0pp | 68.8%-0.4pp | 69.1%+0.3pp | 67.9%-1.2pp |
| Operating Margin | 26.6% | 26.3%-0.3pp | 27.5%+1.2pp | 24.9%-2.6pp | 27.2%+2.2pp |
| Net Margin | 26.5% | 22.4%-4.1pp | 41.3%+18.9pp | 15.8%-25.4pp | 28.5%+12.6pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $287 (last qtr, 14 analysts) → $281 (last mo, 8) (-2.1%).
Buy-rated share 67% → 70% over ~3 months (+3pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $2.52 | $2.59 | +2.8% |
| Jul 2026 | $2.85 | $2.90 | +1.8% |
| Apr 2026 | $2.68 | $2.70 | +0.7% |
| Jan 2026 | $2.46 | $2.46 | +0.0% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.76 | $2.80 | +1.4% |
| Jul 2025 | $2.68 | $2.77 | +3.4% |
| Apr 2025 | $2.58 | $2.77 | +7.4% |
| Jan 2025 | $1.99 | $2.04 | +2.5% |
The QScore of 51 for Johnson & Johnson indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of positive and negative factors. The stock scores high on momentum and profitability, with a 12-month return of 46.4% and an ROE of 19.6%, but is held back by its value score, trading at a premium with a P/E of 41.8. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 2-point difference, suggesting a consistent view across different time horizons.