MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (31) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Avg target $201 (last qtr, 8 analysts) → $192 (last mo, 1) (-4.7%).
Buy-rated share 95% → 100% over ~3 months (+5pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $-0.96 | $-0.76 | +21.1% |
| Feb 2026 | $-1.07 | $-1.54 | -43.9% |
| Oct 2025 | $-1.33 | $-1.75 | -31.6% |
| Aug 2025 | $-1.30 | $-1.70 | -30.8% |
| May 2025 | $-1.34 | $-1.42 | -6.0% |
| Feb 2025 | $-1.17 | $-1.32 | -12.8% |
| Oct 2024 | $-1.20 | $-1.27 | -5.8% |
| Aug 2024 | $-1.24 | $-1.94 | -56.5% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $188M— | $245M+30.2% | $305M+24.4% | $364M+19.2% | $606M+66.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-3.88— | $-3.91n/m | $-5.34n/m | $-5.57n/m | $-6.41n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | -$371M— | -$410Mn/m | -$550Mn/m | -$706Mn/m | -$968Mn/m |
| Gross Margin | 76.6% | 77.5%+1.0pp | 78.5%+1.0pp | 76.4%-2.1pp | 79.4%+3.0pp |
| Operating Margin | -199.0% | -186.4%+12.6pp | -232.5%-46.1pp | -241.5%-9.0pp | -194.0%+47.4pp |
| Net Margin | -230.6% | -196.3%+34.4pp | -245.6%-49.3pp | -251.2%-5.6pp | -210.5%+40.7pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$40.7M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 50 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 31 indicates a relatively weak stock, driven down by poor Value and Profitability scores, with the latter hindered by a negative ROE of -130.1% and operating margin of -137.7%. The stock's Growth score is higher, at 55, due to 66.7% revenue growth, but this is offset by negative EPS and FCF growth. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, at 35 versus 26, but overall the stock's metrics, including a negative P/E and EV/EBITDA, suggest it trades at a premium despite struggling fundamentals.