MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (44) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net insider -$47.3M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 41 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $374M— | $450M+20.3% | $564M+25.5% | $739M+31.0% | $982M+32.9% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-3.80— | $-6.41n/m | $-4.28n/m | $-3.56n/m | $-3.32n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | -$284M— | -$387Mn/m | -$345Mn/m | -$275Mn/m | -$233Mn/m |
| Gross Margin | 67.1% | 65.2%-1.9pp | 59.7%-5.5pp | 60.8%+1.0pp | 64.5%+3.7pp |
| Operating Margin | -110.0% | -121.1%-11.1pp | -100.1%+21.0pp | -60.0%+40.1pp | -44.4%+15.6pp |
| Net Margin | -108.6% | -145.6%-37.0pp | -85.0%+60.6pp | -59.0%+26.0pp | -42.4%+16.7pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $153 (last qtr, 10 analysts) → $167 (last mo, 5) (+9.4%).
Buy-rated share 92% → 92% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $-0.81 | $-0.85 | -5.5% |
| Feb 2026 | $-0.77 | $-0.90 | -17.4% |
| Oct 2025 | $-0.48 | $-0.39 | +18.7% |
| Jul 2025 | $-0.52 | $-0.44 | +15.4% |
| Apr 2025 | $-0.61 | $-0.49 | +19.7% |
| Feb 2025 | $-0.75 | $-0.62 | +17.3% |
| Nov 2024 | $-0.55 | $-0.45 | +18.2% |
| Aug 2024 | $-0.57 | $-0.48 | +15.8% |
The QScore of 44 for Guardant Health indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a divergence between its long-term and short-term scores. The stock scores high on momentum, exhibiting strong momentum with a 199% return over the past year, but is dragged down by its low value score, trading at a significant premium with a negative P/E and EV/EBITDA. Growth and profitability scores are moderate, with revenue growth of 32.9% and an ROE near 184%, while risk factors, such as a beta of 1.6 and high volatility, also weigh on the overall score.