MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (47) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-12.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $70 avg across 8 analysts.
Buy-rated share 52% → 58% over ~3 months (+6pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $0.43 | $0.46 | +6.3% |
| May 2026 | $0.35 | $0.40 | +13.9% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.47 | $0.55 | +15.9% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.38 | $0.41 | +7.0% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.36 | $0.42 | +16.3% |
| May 2025 | $0.29 | $0.34 | +17.5% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.45 | $0.46 | +1.8% |
| Nov 2024 | $0.33 | $0.41 | +24.2% |
Net insider -$3.0M over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 37 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.6B— | $8.1B+23.1% | $7.4B-8.8% | $6.8B-8.7% | $6.8B+0.6% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-0.49— | $2.62n/m | $1.83-30.2% | $-0.48-126.2% | $1.59n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.1B— | -$435M-140.6% | $321Mn/m | $1.1B+241.7% | $1.0B-8.0% |
| Gross Margin | 15.4% | 27.6%+12.2pp | 28.4%+0.8pp | 24.5%-4.0pp | 25.2%+0.7pp |
| Operating Margin | -0.9% | 14.4%+15.3pp | 15.3%+0.9pp | -3.2%-18.4pp | 11.7%+14.9pp |
| Net Margin | -3.8% | 17.9%+21.7pp | 13.8%-4.1pp | -3.9%-17.7pp | 13.0%+17.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 13.4%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $809M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.0B) · equity value $22.7B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 47 for GFS indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of positive and negative factors. The stock scores high on value, with a P/E of 32.1 and P/B of 1.9, and exhibits strong growth in EPS, up 431.3%. However, momentum is a concern, with a 3-month return of -16.2% and a bearish 50-day versus 200-day moving average crossover, while profitability is modest, with an ROE of 6.1%. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively close, with a 4-point difference.